Biggest Polymarket and Kalshi losses, ranked.

Because survivorship bias kills copy-traders. The wins page makes whales look infallible. The losses page is the proof that they aren't. The same wallets that show up on one tend to show up on the other, and the right way to weight a whale is by their net record, not by their last winning trade.

No. We compute paper PnL on the entry trade assuming hold-to-resolution. Some whales cut their losses early, some doubled down, some hedged on a separate venue. The number here is what the trade would have lost if the bettor held the contract through settlement.

No. We only score trades labeled as buys, since a sell is an exit and treating it as a directional bet would contaminate the stats. If a whale opened a $100K YES position and later sold it, we'd score the original buy. The sell doesn't get its own scoring.

Three. Conviction trades that aged badly (long-dated political markets where the narrative shifted). Late longshot bets (someone throws $20K at a 0.04 contract with hours left). And news chases (a headline drops, the price rips, a whale buys the spike). All three are avoidable if you read the page once a week.