Biggest Polymarket and Kalshi losses, ranked.
The other half of the board. Whale-sized buys we've tracked that resolved against the bettor, ranked by paper loss. Read this before you size into your next copy-trade.
Resolved trades are what a strategy gets scored on.
Every trade on this page has a known outcome, which is what makes it possible to measure a rule instead of guessing at one. Write a rule over trades like these and Rivo scores it: our longshot rule went 105 wins and 345 losses and still returned +67.5% at $100 a trade.
Top 50 losses
Losses, day by day
Every day where a resolved loss cleared the floor. Past-date pages are immutable, permanent snapshots of what didn't work.
- August 25, 2026263
- August 24, 202610638
- August 23, 202631677
- August 22, 202628568
- August 21, 202618725
- August 20, 202630314
- August 19, 202622717
- August 18, 202620041
- August 17, 202612091
- August 16, 202614602
- August 15, 202611427
- August 14, 20269913
- August 13, 20269299
- August 12, 20268125
- August 11, 20267649
- August 10, 20265364
- August 9, 20266512
- August 8, 20267123
- August 7, 20266920
- August 6, 20265810
- August 5, 20265673
- August 4, 20264560
- August 3, 20263477
- August 2, 20264664
- August 1, 20264830
- July 31, 20264743
- July 30, 20263904
- July 29, 20263770
- July 28, 20263662
- July 27, 20262827
Most of these losses were avoidable.
Three patterns dominate the page: long-dated conviction trades that aged badly, late longshot punts, and news chases. Each shows up over and over. We surface live whale activity in real time and grade it before it hits your phone, so you see the trades worth copying and skip the ones that end up here.
Get accessAbout the losses leaderboard
Why publish the losses?+
Because survivorship bias kills copy-traders. The wins page makes whales look infallible. The losses page is the proof that they aren't. The same wallets that show up on one tend to show up on the other, and the right way to weight a whale is by their net record, not by their last winning trade.
Are these realized losses?+
No. We compute paper PnL on the entry trade assuming hold-to-resolution. Some whales cut their losses early, some doubled down, some hedged on a separate venue. The number here is what the trade would have lost if the bettor held the contract through settlement.
Do you publish losses for sells, too?+
No. We only score trades labeled as buys, since a sell is an exit and treating it as a directional bet would contaminate the stats. If a whale opened a $100K YES position and later sold it, we'd score the original buy. The sell doesn't get its own scoring.
What patterns show up most on the losses leaderboard?+
Three. Conviction trades that aged badly (long-dated political markets where the narrative shifted). Late longshot bets (someone throws $20K at a 0.04 contract with hours left). And news chases (a headline drops, the price rips, a whale buys the spike). All three are avoidable if you read the page once a week.