Biggest Polymarket and Kalshi losses, ranked.
The other half of the board. Whale-sized buys we've tracked that resolved against the bettor, ranked by paper loss. Read this before you size into your next copy-trade.
Turn the record into a signal you can test.
Use the settled trades to form an idea. Choose a category or entry price range in the bot builder. Set your stake and review the historical result. Run the signal on paper to follow its next matches.
Top 50 losses
Losses, day by day
Every day where a resolved loss cleared the floor. Past-date pages are immutable, permanent snapshots of what didn't work.
- October 9, 20265819
- October 8, 202631810
- October 7, 202640726
- October 6, 202656325
- October 5, 202659035
- October 4, 202689760
- October 3, 202690566
- October 2, 2026111799
- October 1, 202695054
- September 30, 202685410
- September 29, 2026111151
- September 28, 202689183
- September 27, 2026114649
- September 26, 202698463
- September 25, 202683863
- September 24, 202672299
- September 23, 202667408
- September 22, 202671085
- September 21, 202667066
- September 20, 2026114055
- September 19, 2026104962
- September 18, 202688386
- September 17, 202675228
- September 16, 202676695
- September 15, 202668460
- September 14, 202654795
- September 13, 202679222
- September 12, 202678939
- September 11, 202662548
- September 10, 202651705
Most of these losses were avoidable.
Three patterns dominate the page: long-dated conviction trades that aged badly, late longshot punts, and news chases. Each shows up over and over. We surface live whale activity in real time and grade it before it hits your phone, so you see the trades worth copying and skip the ones that end up here.
Get accessAbout the losses leaderboard
Why publish the losses?+
Because survivorship bias kills copy-traders. The wins page makes whales look infallible. The losses page is the proof that they aren't. The same wallets that show up on one tend to show up on the other, and the right way to weight a whale is by their net record, not by their last winning trade.
Are these realized losses?+
No. We compute paper PnL on the entry trade assuming hold-to-resolution. Some whales cut their losses early, some doubled down, some hedged on a separate venue. The number here is what the trade would have lost if the bettor held the contract through settlement.
Do you publish losses for sells, too?+
No. We only score trades labeled as buys, since a sell is an exit and treating it as a directional bet would contaminate the stats. If a whale opened a $100K YES position and later sold it, we'd score the original buy. The sell doesn't get its own scoring.
What patterns show up most on the losses leaderboard?+
Three. Conviction trades that aged badly (long-dated political markets where the narrative shifted). Late longshot bets (someone throws $20K at a 0.04 contract with hours left). And news chases (a headline drops, the price rips, a whale buys the spike). All three are avoidable if you read the page once a week.
Related
- Kalshi whale trackerThe trades winning Kalshi traders are making in one feed you can execute from.
- Prediction market bot builderBuild a bot in three steps: a trader or a signal as the trigger, a backtest at your size, then alerts, paper or live on your own account.
- Polymarket whale trackerThe trades winning Polymarket traders are making in one feed you can execute from.
- BacktestingScore a trader or a signal against resolved Polymarket and Kalshi markets before the bot runs.