Worst bets, all time.
The 100 largest paper losses we've recorded across Polymarket and Kalshi. Big size, bad call. The cost of doing business at scale, or the price of arrogance, depending on the trade.
Ranked
Numbers 2 through 100
#2-$447.5K
YES
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?stake $447.5K·@ 54¢Jun 16, 2026#3-$412.9K
ARSENAL FC
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)stake $412.9K·@ 51¢May 18, 2026#4-$400.2K
YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?stake $400.2K·@ 66¢Jun 25, 2026#5-$350.8K
YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?stake $350.8K·@ 61¢May 19, 2026#6-$330.1K
YES
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24?stake $330.1K·@ 68¢May 24, 2026#7-$303.1K
YES
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?stake $303.1K·@ 57¢Jun 14, 2026#8-$302.5K
NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?stake $302.5K·@ 86¢Jun 13, 2026#9-$300.0K
HAITI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)stake $300.0K·@ 51¢Jun 24, 2026#10-$296.7K
YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?stake $296.7K·@ 62¢Jun 15, 2026#11-$295.6K
ARSENAL FC
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)stake $295.6K·@ 52¢May 18, 2026#12-$295.2K
NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?stake $295.2K·@ 88¢Jun 5, 2026#13-$291.6K
NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?stake $291.6K·@ 87¢Jun 2, 2026#14-$290.3K
SPURS
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)stake $290.3K·@ 48¢Jun 4, 2026#15-$289.3K
YES
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?stake $289.3K·@ 66¢May 4, 2026#16-$274.5K
TIMBERWOLVES
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesstake $274.5K·@ 35¢May 13, 2026#17-$274.5K
YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?stake $274.5K·@ 61¢May 19, 2026#18-$262.3K
YES
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?stake $262.3K·@ 31¢Jun 13, 2026#19-$259.6K
YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?stake $259.6K·@ 62¢Jun 21, 2026#20-$255.0K
NO
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?stake $255.0K·@ 36¢Jun 13, 2026#21-$250.0K
YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?stake $250.0K·@ 66¢Jun 15, 2026#22-$249.8K
YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?stake $249.8K·@ 66¢Jun 15, 2026#23-$244.4K
YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?stake $244.4K·@ 44¢May 30, 2026#24-$243.1K
YES
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17?stake $243.1K·@ 75¢May 17, 2026#25-$240K
YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?stake $240K·@ 48¢May 30, 2026#26-$238.3K
NO
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?stake $238.3K·@ 39¢Jun 14, 2026#27-$236.3K
SPURS
Spurs vs. Knicksstake $236.3K·@ 46¢Jun 11, 2026#28-$235K
YES
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?stake $235K·@ 47¢Jun 20, 2026#29-$232K
SEATTLE MARINERS
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Marinersstake $232K·@ 58¢May 17, 2026#30-$229.5K
CELTICS
76ers vs. Celticsstake $229.5K·@ 69¢May 2, 2026#31-$226.8K
SPURS
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)stake $226.8K·@ 45¢May 26, 2026#32-$225.3K
THUNDER
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)stake $225.3K·@ 48¢Apr 28, 2026#33-$220.1K
CAVALIERS
Knicks vs. Cavaliersstake $220.1K·@ 46¢May 25, 2026#34-$215.9K
NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?stake $215.9K·@ 87¢Jun 2, 2026#35-$211.4K
CELTICS
76ers vs. Celticsstake $211.4K·@ 68¢May 2, 2026#36-$205.6K
YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?stake $205.6K·@ 66¢Jun 25, 2026#37-$205.3K
YES
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?stake $205.3K·@ 82¢Jun 8, 2026#38-$200.0K
HAITI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)stake $200.0K·@ 51¢Jun 24, 2026#39-$200.0K
YES
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?stake $200.0K·@ 47¢Jun 14, 2026#40-$200K
THUNDER
Spurs vs. Thunderstake $200K·@ 57¢May 31, 2026#41-$200.0K
YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?stake $200.0K·@ 66¢Jun 15, 2026#42-$200.0K
YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?stake $200.0K·@ 66¢Jun 15, 2026#43-$200.0K
YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?stake $200.0K·@ 66¢Jun 15, 2026#44-$197.1K
NEW YORK YANKEES
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Oriolesstake $197.1K·@ 60¢May 13, 2026#45-$196.8K
MAGDALENA FRECH
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frechstake $196.8K·@ 62¢May 27, 2026#46-$192.3K
NO
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?stake $192.3K·@ 76¢Jun 27, 2026#47-$188K
BOSTON RED SOX
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardiansstake $188K·@ 47¢May 29, 2026#48-$187.9K
SPURS
Spurs vs. Thunderstake $187.9K·@ 31¢May 21, 2026#49-$185.9K
CAVALIERS
Pistons vs. Cavaliersstake $185.9K·@ 62¢May 15, 2026#50-$181.6K
MALCOLM WELLMAKER
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)stake $181.6K·@ 69¢May 17, 2026#51-$180.8K
THUNDER
Spurs vs. Thunderstake $180.8K·@ 70¢May 18, 2026#52-$179.6K
YES
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?stake $179.6K·@ 45¢Jun 26, 2026#53-$178.2K
YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?stake $178.2K·@ 62¢Jun 15, 2026#54-$177.0K
THUNDER
Thunder vs. Spursstake $177.0K·@ 41¢May 28, 2026#55-$176.3K
AVALANCHE
Avalanche vs. Golden Knightsstake $176.3K·@ 59¢May 24, 2026#56-$174.9K
YES
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17?stake $174.9K·@ 75¢May 17, 2026#57-$174.7K
NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?stake $174.7K·@ 88¢Jun 3, 2026#58-$172K
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Metsstake $172K·@ 43¢Jun 11, 2026#59-$171.5K
THUNDER
Thunder vs. Spursstake $171.5K·@ 41¢May 29, 2026#60-$169.3K
YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?stake $169.3K·@ 61¢May 19, 2026#61-$168.1K
FEDERICO CINA
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jongstake $168.1K·@ 42¢May 27, 2026#62-$168.0K
FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajdastake $168.0K·@ 92¢May 30, 2026#63-$167.8K
NO
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?stake $167.8K·@ 36¢Jun 13, 2026#64-$165.4K
UNDER
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5stake $165.4K·@ 56¢May 31, 2026#65-$165.1K
NO
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?stake $165.1K·@ 69¢Jun 27, 2026#66-$164K
CINCINNATI REDS
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padresstake $164K·@ 41¢Jun 10, 2026#67-$160.9K
BOSTON RED SOX
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Soxstake $160.9K·@ 46¢May 28, 2026#68-$158.0K
OVER
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5stake $158.0K·@ 44¢Jun 26, 2026#69-$157.6K
YES
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?stake $157.6K·@ 64¢Jun 17, 2026#70-$156.9K
UNDER
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5stake $156.9K·@ 51¢Jun 17, 2026#71-$156.8K
NO
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?stake $156.8K·@ 57¢May 19, 2026#72-$156.5K
NO
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?stake $156.5K·@ 61¢May 3, 2026#73-$153.9K
HURRICANES
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsstake $153.9K·@ 51¢Jun 6, 2026#74-$153.9K
CÔTE DIVOIRE
Spread: Germany (-1.5)stake $153.9K·@ 59¢Jun 20, 2026#75-$152.5K
CAVALIERS
Pistons vs. Cavaliersstake $152.5K·@ 61¢May 15, 2026#76-$152.5K
YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?stake $152.5K·@ 61¢May 19, 2026#77-$150K
LAKERS
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)stake $150K·@ 50¢May 8, 2026#78-$150K
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giantsstake $150K·@ 50¢Jun 10, 2026#79-$149.7K
YES
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?stake $149.7K·@ 44¢Jun 25, 2026#80-$149.5K
YES
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?stake $149.5K·@ 92¢Jun 15, 2026#81-$149.0K
ATLANTA BRAVES
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Metsstake $149.0K·@ 47¢Jun 12, 2026#82-$148.3K
ROCKETS
Lakers vs. Rocketsstake $148.3K·@ 61¢May 2, 2026#83-$147.2K
TIMBERWOLVES
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)stake $147.2K·@ 49¢Apr 28, 2026#84-$147.1K
TEXAS RANGERS
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Soxstake $147.1K·@ 46¢Jun 12, 2026#85-$144K
FRANCES TIAFOE
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldistake $144K·@ 48¢Jun 1, 2026#86-$143.6K
CAVALIERS
Cavaliers vs. Knicksstake $143.6K·@ 31¢May 19, 2026#87-$142.4K
YES
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?stake $142.4K·@ 65¢Jun 17, 2026#88-$141.7K
JOAO FONSECA
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonsecastake $141.7K·@ 67¢Jun 2, 2026#89-$141.5K
SPURS
Knicks vs. Spursstake $141.5K·@ 67¢Jun 5, 2026#90-$138.3K
SPURS
Timberwolves vs. Spursstake $138.3K·@ 72¢May 5, 2026#91-$137.7K
YES
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?stake $137.7K·@ 31¢Jun 13, 2026#92-$137.5K
YES
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11?stake $137.5K·@ 64¢May 11, 2026#93-$136.8K
YES
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?stake $136.8K·@ 53¢Jun 12, 2026#94-$136.8K
G2
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffsstake $136.8K·@ 72¢May 1, 2026#95-$136.7K
HURRICANES
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesstake $136.7K·@ 65¢May 21, 2026#96-$135.8K
YES
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?stake $135.8K·@ 50¢Jun 26, 2026#97-$135.4K
TEXAS RANGERS
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangersstake $135.4K·@ 51¢May 11, 2026#98-$134.1K
YES
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?stake $134.1K·@ 84¢Jun 20, 2026#99-$132.7K
YES
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11?stake $132.7K·@ 64¢May 11, 2026#100-$132.2K
YES
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?stake $132.2K·@ 82¢Jun 13, 2026