Worst bets, all time.
The 100 largest paper losses we've recorded across Polymarket and Kalshi. Big size, bad call. The cost of doing business at scale, or the price of arrogance, depending on the trade.
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Biggest Loss
-$1.4MATLANTA BRAVES
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
stake $1.4M·entry @ 71¢·-100% loss·Sep 22, 2026
Numbers 2 through 100
#2-$961.0K
YES
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?stake $961.0K·@ 60¢Sep 15, 2026#3-$961.0K
YES
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?stake $961.0K·@ 60¢Sep 15, 2026#4-$729.9K
DETROIT TIGERS
Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigersstake $729.9K·@ 63¢Sep 23, 2026#5-$729.9K
DETROIT TIGERS
Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigersstake $729.9K·@ 63¢Sep 23, 2026#6-$712.4K
NO
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?stake $712.4K·@ 62¢Jul 4, 2026#7-$690K
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgersstake $690K·@ 69¢Oct 4, 2026#8-$690K
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgersstake $690K·@ 69¢Oct 4, 2026#9-$584.5K
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgersstake $584.5K·@ 84¢Jul 8, 2026#10-$555.7K
YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?stake $555.7K·@ 10¢Jun 16, 2026#11-$536.1K
LIONS
Lions vs. Panthersstake $536.1K·@ 66¢Oct 5, 2026#12-$510.0K
FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobollistake $510.0K·@ 51¢Jun 3, 2026#13-$489.5K
TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winnerstake $489.5K·@ 49¢Aug 21, 2026#14-$455.7K
NO
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?stake $455.7K·@ 47¢Jul 4, 2026#15-$447.5K
YES
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?stake $447.5K·@ 54¢Jun 16, 2026#16-$424.5K
YES
Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16?stake $424.5K·@ 44¢Sep 16, 2026#17-$424.5K
YES
Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16?stake $424.5K·@ 44¢Sep 16, 2026#18-$423.0K
BRONCOS
Broncos vs. Chiefsstake $423.0K·@ 45¢Sep 14, 2026#19-$412.9K
ARSENAL FC
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)stake $412.9K·@ 51¢May 18, 2026#20-$400.2K
YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?stake $400.2K·@ 66¢Jun 25, 2026#21-$399.8K
YES
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-09-08?stake $399.8K·@ 38¢Sep 8, 2026#22-$399.8K
YES
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-09-08?stake $399.8K·@ 38¢Sep 8, 2026#23-$392.0K
OVER
Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 41.5stake $392.0K·@ 53¢Sep 28, 2026#24-$381.6K
ATLANTA BRAVES
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Bravesstake $381.6K·@ 70¢Sep 22, 2026#25-$381.6K
ATLANTA BRAVES
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Bravesstake $381.6K·@ 70¢Sep 22, 2026#26-$376.7K
FUT ESPORTS
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group Bstake $376.7K·@ 58¢Aug 27, 2026#27-$375.8K
FURIA ESPORTS
Valorant: LOUD vs FURIA Esports - Map 1 Winnerstake $375.8K·@ 45¢Aug 27, 2026#28-$374.1K
YES
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?stake $374.1K·@ 51¢Sep 6, 2026#29-$374.1K
YES
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?stake $374.1K·@ 51¢Sep 6, 2026#30-$374.1K
NO
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?stake $374.1K·@ 46¢Oct 1, 2026#31-$372.9K
YES
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-18?stake $372.9K·@ 38¢Sep 18, 2026#32-$372.9K
YES
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-18?stake $372.9K·@ 38¢Sep 18, 2026#33-$371.7K
NATUS VINCERE
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 2 Winnerstake $371.7K·@ 75¢Aug 26, 2026#34-$371.7K
NATUS VINCERE
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 2 Winnerstake $371.7K·@ 75¢Aug 26, 2026#35-$368K
NO
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?stake $368K·@ 46¢Jun 29, 2026#36-$367.8K
YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?stake $367.8K·@ 42¢Jul 15, 2026#37-$364.2K
UNDER
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5stake $364.2K·@ 53¢Sep 24, 2026#38-$364.2K
UNDER
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5stake $364.2K·@ 53¢Sep 24, 2026#39-$354.6K
BILLS
Patriots vs. Billsstake $354.6K·@ 74¢Oct 4, 2026#40-$350.8K
YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?stake $350.8K·@ 61¢May 19, 2026#41-$349.1K
NATUS VINCERE
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stagestake $349.1K·@ 43¢Oct 6, 2026#42-$342.9K
NO
Will France win on 2026-09-28?stake $342.9K·@ 57¢Sep 28, 2026#43-$342.9K
NO
Will France win on 2026-09-28?stake $342.9K·@ 57¢Sep 28, 2026#44-$341.0K
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankeesstake $341.0K·@ 40¢Sep 22, 2026#45-$340K
NO
Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02?stake $340K·@ 34¢Oct 2, 2026#46-$338.1K
YES
Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16?stake $338.1K·@ 45¢Sep 16, 2026#47-$336K
FURIA
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsstake $336K·@ 56¢Aug 22, 2026#48-$330.2K
JESSICA PEGULA
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Coco Gauffstake $330.2K·@ 79¢Jul 7, 2026#49-$330.1K
DETROIT TIGERS
Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigersstake $330.1K·@ 64¢Sep 23, 2026#50-$330.1K
YES
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24?stake $330.1K·@ 68¢May 24, 2026#51-$325K
TEAM FALCONS
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffsstake $325K·@ 65¢Aug 5, 2026#52-$324.3K
YES
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-08-29?stake $324.3K·@ 69¢Aug 29, 2026#53-$321.4K
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Bravesstake $321.4K·@ 49¢Aug 27, 2026#54-$314.2K
YES
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23?stake $314.2K·@ 51¢Aug 23, 2026#55-$314.2K
YES
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23?stake $314.2K·@ 51¢Aug 23, 2026#56-$306K
HURRICANES
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsstake $306K·@ 51¢Jun 6, 2026#57-$305.1K
STEELERS
Steelers vs. Brownsstake $305.1K·@ 58¢Oct 1, 2026#58-$305.1K
STEELERS
Steelers vs. Brownsstake $305.1K·@ 58¢Oct 1, 2026#59-$304.0K
YES
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-12?stake $304.0K·@ 65¢Sep 12, 2026#60-$304.0K
YES
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-12?stake $304.0K·@ 65¢Sep 12, 2026#61-$303.9K
PACKERS
Spread: Packers (-4.5)stake $303.9K·@ 52¢Sep 25, 2026#62-$303.9K
PACKERS
Spread: Packers (-4.5)stake $303.9K·@ 52¢Sep 25, 2026#63-$303.1K
YES
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?stake $303.1K·@ 57¢Jun 14, 2026#64-$302.5K
NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?stake $302.5K·@ 86¢Jun 13, 2026#65-$300.8K
MEXICO
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancestake $300.8K·@ 47¢Jul 5, 2026#66-$300.3K
NIGMA GALAXY
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffsstake $300.3K·@ 43¢Aug 21, 2026#67-$300K
LIONS
Lions vs. Billsstake $300K·@ 30¢Sep 17, 2026#68-$300.0K
HAITI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)stake $300.0K·@ 51¢Jun 24, 2026#69-$298.9K
YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?stake $298.9K·@ 86¢Jul 3, 2026#70-$296.7K
YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?stake $296.7K·@ 62¢Jun 15, 2026#71-$295.6K
ARSENAL FC
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)stake $295.6K·@ 52¢May 18, 2026#72-$295.2K
NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?stake $295.2K·@ 88¢Jun 5, 2026#73-$295K
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giantsstake $295K·@ 59¢Aug 28, 2026#74-$293.7K
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgersstake $293.7K·@ 84¢Jul 8, 2026#75-$293.7K
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgersstake $293.7K·@ 84¢Jul 8, 2026#76-$291.6K
NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?stake $291.6K·@ 87¢Jun 2, 2026#77-$290.3K
SPURS
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)stake $290.3K·@ 48¢Jun 4, 2026#78-$290.3K
SPURS
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)stake $290.3K·@ 48¢Jun 4, 2026#79-$290K
EAGLES
Eagles vs. Bearsstake $290K·@ 58¢Sep 29, 2026#80-$290K
EAGLES
Eagles vs. Bearsstake $290K·@ 58¢Sep 29, 2026#81-$289.3K
TOMMY PAUL
Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobollistake $289.3K·@ 51¢Aug 20, 2026#82-$289.3K
YES
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?stake $289.3K·@ 66¢May 4, 2026#83-$287.7K
9Z
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group Bstake $287.7K·@ 39¢Aug 27, 2026#84-$287.7K
9Z
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group Bstake $287.7K·@ 39¢Aug 27, 2026#85-$287.2K
OVER
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5stake $287.2K·@ 51¢Jul 9, 2026#86-$286.8K
BOOMBOYS
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffsstake $286.8K·@ 32¢Aug 22, 2026#87-$284.1K
YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?stake $284.1K·@ 42¢May 29, 2026#88-$282.8K
LIONS
Lions vs. Panthersstake $282.8K·@ 66¢Oct 4, 2026#89-$282.8K
LIONS
Lions vs. Panthersstake $282.8K·@ 66¢Oct 4, 2026#90-$282.6K
YES
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?stake $282.6K·@ 50¢Sep 6, 2026#91-$282.6K
YES
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?stake $282.6K·@ 50¢Sep 6, 2026#92-$281.8K
JETS
Spread: Lions (-6.5)stake $281.8K·@ 48¢Sep 27, 2026#93-$281.8K
JETS
Spread: Lions (-6.5)stake $281.8K·@ 48¢Sep 27, 2026#94-$281.4K
FURIA
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsstake $281.4K·@ 55¢Aug 22, 2026#95-$280.6K
CONOR MCGREGOR
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)stake $280.6K·@ 28¢Jul 12, 2026#96-$274.5K
TIMBERWOLVES
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesstake $274.5K·@ 35¢May 13, 2026#97-$274.5K
YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?stake $274.5K·@ 61¢May 19, 2026#98-$267.9K
LIONS
Lions vs. Billsstake $267.9K·@ 29¢Sep 17, 2026#99-$267.6K
NO
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-08?stake $267.6K·@ 72¢Sep 8, 2026#100-$267.2K
LYNN VISION
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group Bstake $267.2K·@ 27¢Aug 27, 2026Related
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