rivomarkets

Biggest Polymarket and Kalshi wins, ranked.

Every whale-sized trade we've tracked that settled in the bettor's favor, ranked by paper PnL assuming hold-to-resolution. Updated every time a new market resolves.

These are backtest data

Resolved trades are what a strategy gets scored on.

Every trade on this page has a known outcome, which is what makes it possible to measure a rule instead of guessing at one. Write a rule over trades like these and Rivo scores it: our longshot rule went 105 wins and 345 losses and still returned +67.5% at $100 a trade.

How backtesting works
The tape

Top 50 wins

Hall of fame →
#2+$1.2M
FUT ESPORTS
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsAug 22, 2026
#3+$1.2M
FUT ESPORTS
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsAug 22, 2026
#4+$1.1M
YES
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Jun 12, 2026
#5+$1.0M
YES
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Oct 22, 2024
#6+$823.1K
NO
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?Jun 16, 2026
#7+$796.3K
YES
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?Oct 22, 2024
#8+$794.4K
NO
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Jun 15, 2026
#9+$794.4K
NO
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Jun 15, 2026
#10+$735.4K
NO
San Francisco vs Los Angeles Pro Football game: LA Chargers wins?Aug 21, 2026
#11+$698.2K
SPAIN
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceJul 14, 2026
#12+$668.3K
BRANDON NAKASHIMA
Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon NakashimaAug 21, 2026
#13+$666.6K
NO
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Jul 14, 2026
#14+$643.1K
NO
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?Oct 31, 2024
#15+$635.8K
YES
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?Jun 15, 2026
#16+$630K
YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17?Mar 17, 2026
#17+$622.2K
NO
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?Jun 15, 2026
#18+$614.7K
NO
New York vs Pittsburgh Pro Football game: PIT Steelers wins?Aug 22, 2026
#19+$612.1K
YES
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?Jun 18, 2026
#20+$580K
CABO VERDE
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Jun 15, 2026
#21+$574.8K
YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Jun 22, 2026
#22+$562.2K
YES
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?Jun 15, 2026
#23+$560K
TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International PlayoffsAug 23, 2026
#24+$542.5K
NO
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?Oct 28, 2024
#25+$541.7K
NO
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?Jun 16, 2026
#26+$529.7K
YES
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?Jul 4, 2026
#27+$510K
YES
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?Mar 1, 2026
#28+$509.1K
YES
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-16?Aug 16, 2026
#29+$500K
NO
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?Jun 16, 2026
#30+$496.9K
YES
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24?Aug 24, 2026
#31+$492.0K
CABO VERDE
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Jun 15, 2026
#32+$479.4K
NO
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Jun 15, 2026
#33+$453.7K
SPAIN
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceJul 14, 2026
#34+$448K
YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17?Mar 17, 2026
#35+$445.5K
OVER
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5Aug 16, 2026
#36+$441.8K
SEAN STRICKLAND
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)May 9, 2026
#37+$440.1K
NO
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?Jun 25, 2026
#38+$433.0K
YES
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?Jul 19, 2026
#39+$429.2K
YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Oct 26, 2024
#40+$425.9K
NO
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?Jun 20, 2026
#41+$424.1K
YES
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22?Aug 22, 2026
#42+$424.1K
YES
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22?Aug 22, 2026
#43+$420.1K
YES
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?Jun 18, 2026
#44+$420.1K
YES
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?Jun 18, 2026
#45+$408K
NO
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16?Mar 16, 2026
#46+$407.0K
NO
What will the announcers say during Jordan vs Argentina?Jun 28, 2026
#47+$406.9K
NO
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Jun 25, 2026
#48+$405K
CABO VERDE
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Jun 15, 2026
#49+$405K
CABO VERDE
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Jun 15, 2026
#50+$402.7K
NO
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?Jun 25, 2026
Why this matters

The biggest wins start as alerts in our feed.

Every trade you see ranked here was a real whale bet at the moment it printed. We watch every whale-sized trade across Polymarket and Kalshi, filter out the noise, and push the ones worth copying to your phone or computer in seconds. Months later they show up on this leaderboard.

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Frequently asked

About the wins leaderboard

What counts as a "win" on this leaderboard?+

A whale-sized trade that we tracked on Polymarket or Kalshi where the market resolved in favor of the side the bettor took. We calculate paper PnL assuming hold-to-resolution, so the number is what the bettor would have made if they'd held the contract through settlement.

Are these realized profits?+

No. We report paper PnL on the entry trade. Some whales exit early at a smaller profit, roll into another position, or double down. The number here is the most favorable interpretation of the original entry, which is the consistent way to rank trades across platforms.

How often is the leaderboard updated?+

The resolver runs every 12 hours and marks newly settled trades. The page itself is cached at the edge for an hour with revalidation, so you're seeing data that's at most an hour old on any given visit.

Why are biggest wins almost always longshot bets?+

A $50K bet on a 0.10 longshot pays $450K if it hits. A $50K bet on a 0.60 favorite pays $33K. The math is structural. To put up a six-figure win you either need a massive stake on a coinflip or a moderate stake on a contested price.