Biggest wins, all time.
The top 100 paper-PnL wins we've ever recorded across Polymarket and Kalshi. The trades whales called right when nobody else believed them.
These are backtest data
How backtesting worksResolved trades are what a strategy gets scored on.
Every trade on this page has a known outcome, which is what makes it possible to measure a rule instead of guessing at one. Write a rule over trades like these and Rivo scores it: our longshot rule went 105 wins and 345 losses and still returned +67.5% at $100 a trade.
Ranked
Numbers 2 through 100
#2+$1.2M
FUT ESPORTS
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsstake $1.0M·@ 45¢Aug 22, 2026#3+$1.2M
FUT ESPORTS
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsstake $1.0M·@ 45¢Aug 22, 2026#4+$1.1M
YES
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?stake $920K·@ 46¢Jun 12, 2026#5+$1.0M
YES
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?stake $601.5K·@ 37¢Oct 22, 2024#6+$823.1K
NO
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?stake $790.8K·@ 49¢Jun 16, 2026#7+$796.3K
YES
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?stake $477.8K·@ 37¢Oct 22, 2024#8+$794.4K
NO
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?stake $78.6K·@ 9¢Jun 15, 2026#9+$794.4K
NO
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?stake $78.6K·@ 9¢Jun 15, 2026#10+$735.4K
NO
San Francisco vs Los Angeles Pro Football game: LA Chargers wins?stake $64.0K·@ 8¢Aug 21, 2026#11+$698.2K
SPAIN
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancestake $565.2K·@ 45¢Jul 14, 2026#12+$668.3K
BRANDON NAKASHIMA
Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashimastake $426.0K·@ 39¢Aug 21, 2026#13+$666.6K
NO
Will France win on 2026-07-14?stake $1.1M·@ 63¢Jul 14, 2026#14+$643.1K
NO
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?stake $393.4K·@ 38¢Oct 31, 2024#15+$635.8K
YES
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?stake $189.9K·@ 23¢Jun 15, 2026#16+$630K
YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17?stake $370K·@ 37¢Mar 17, 2026#17+$622.2K
NO
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?stake $350.0K·@ 36¢Jun 15, 2026#18+$614.7K
NO
New York vs Pittsburgh Pro Football game: PIT Steelers wins?stake $46.3K·@ 7¢Aug 22, 2026#19+$612.1K
YES
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?stake $250.0K·@ 29¢Jun 18, 2026#20+$580K
CABO VERDE
Spread: Spain (-2.5)stake $420K·@ 42¢Jun 15, 2026#21+$574.8K
YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?stake $92.8K·@ 14¢Jun 22, 2026#22+$562.2K
YES
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?stake $177.5K·@ 24¢Jun 15, 2026#23+$560K
TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsstake $440K·@ 44¢Aug 23, 2026#24+$542.5K
NO
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?stake $387.1K·@ 42¢Oct 28, 2024#25+$541.7K
NO
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?stake $500.0K·@ 48¢Jun 16, 2026#26+$529.7K
YES
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?stake $311.1K·@ 37¢Jul 4, 2026#27+$510K
YES
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?stake $990K·@ 66¢Mar 1, 2026#28+$509.1K
YES
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-16?stake $273.3K·@ 35¢Aug 16, 2026#29+$500K
NO
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?stake $500K·@ 50¢Jun 16, 2026#30+$496.9K
YES
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24?stake $517.2K·@ 51¢Aug 24, 2026#31+$492.0K
CABO VERDE
Spread: Spain (-2.5)stake $341.9K·@ 41¢Jun 15, 2026#32+$479.4K
NO
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?stake $47.4K·@ 9¢Jun 15, 2026#33+$453.7K
SPAIN
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancestake $363.8K·@ 45¢Jul 14, 2026#34+$448K
YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17?stake $252K·@ 36¢Mar 17, 2026#35+$445.5K
OVER
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5stake $474.1K·@ 52¢Aug 16, 2026#36+$441.8K
SEAN STRICKLAND
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)stake $103.6K·@ 19¢May 9, 2026#37+$440.1K
NO
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?stake $559.9K·@ 56¢Jun 25, 2026#38+$433.0K
YES
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?stake $201.4K·@ 32¢Jul 19, 2026#39+$429.2K
YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?stake $760.9K·@ 64¢Oct 26, 2024#40+$425.9K
NO
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?stake $500.0K·@ 54¢Jun 20, 2026#41+$424.1K
YES
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22?stake $375.9K·@ 47¢Aug 22, 2026#42+$424.1K
YES
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22?stake $375.9K·@ 47¢Aug 22, 2026#43+$420.1K
YES
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?stake $1.3M·@ 76¢Jun 18, 2026#44+$420.1K
YES
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?stake $1.3M·@ 76¢Jun 18, 2026#45+$408K
NO
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16?stake $392K·@ 49¢Mar 16, 2026#46+$407.0K
NO
What will the announcers say during Jordan vs Argentina?stake $4.1K·@ 1¢Jun 28, 2026#47+$406.9K
NO
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?stake $293.1K·@ 42¢Jun 25, 2026#48+$405K
CABO VERDE
Spread: Spain (-2.5)stake $345K·@ 46¢Jun 15, 2026#49+$405K
CABO VERDE
Spread: Spain (-2.5)stake $345K·@ 46¢Jun 15, 2026#50+$402.7K
NO
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?stake $624.5K·@ 61¢Jun 25, 2026#51+$402K
SPURS
Spurs vs. Thunderstake $198K·@ 33¢May 18, 2026#52+$400.8K
JAKUB MENSIK
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublevstake $370.0K·@ 48¢May 31, 2026#53+$389.1K
KNICKS
Knicks vs. Spursstake $218.8K·@ 36¢Jun 13, 2026#54+$387K
OVER
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5stake $513K·@ 57¢Jun 24, 2026#55+$385.1K
YES
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21?stake $896.4K·@ 70¢Feb 21, 2026#56+$382.3K
NO
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16?stake $339.1K·@ 47¢Mar 16, 2026#57+$379.5K
TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsstake $298.2K·@ 44¢Aug 23, 2026#58+$379.5K
TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsstake $298.2K·@ 44¢Aug 23, 2026#59+$376.3K
TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsstake $295.7K·@ 44¢Aug 23, 2026#60+$376.3K
TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsstake $295.7K·@ 44¢Aug 23, 2026#61+$374.7K
NO
Will France win on 2026-07-14?stake $637.9K·@ 63¢Jul 14, 2026#62+$374.7K
YES
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?stake $131.6K·@ 26¢Jun 13, 2026#63+$373.4K
NO
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?stake $154.0K·@ 29¢Nov 4, 2024#64+$371.4K
NO
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?stake $200.0K·@ 35¢Jun 15, 2026#65+$371.2K
NO
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?stake $564.0K·@ 60¢Jun 25, 2026#66+$365.4K
NO
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?stake $283.7K·@ 44¢Jun 25, 2026#67+$365.3K
YES
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?stake $128.4K·@ 26¢Jun 13, 2026#68+$363.4K
TEAM VISION
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffsstake $772.2K·@ 68¢Aug 22, 2026#69+$363.4K
TEAM VISION
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffsstake $772.2K·@ 68¢Aug 22, 2026#70+$356.4K
YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?stake $99.9K·@ 22¢Jul 14, 2026#71+$356.2K
YES
Will England win on 2026-07-05?stake $218.3K·@ 38¢Jul 5, 2026#72+$355.6K
NO
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?stake $200.0K·@ 36¢Jun 15, 2026#73+$355.6K
NO
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?stake $200.0K·@ 36¢Jun 15, 2026#74+$355.6K
NO
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?stake $200.0K·@ 36¢Jun 15, 2026#75+$355.6K
NO
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?stake $200.0K·@ 36¢Jun 15, 2026#76+$345.2K
FRANCE
Spread: France (-1.5)stake $171.9K·@ 33¢Jul 9, 2026#77+$340.1K
CABO VERDE
Spread: Spain (-2.5)stake $289.7K·@ 46¢Jun 15, 2026#78+$337.9K
BELGIUM
Spread: Spain (-1.5)stake $614.0K·@ 65¢Jul 10, 2026#79+$334.5K
SPIRIT
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsstake $334.5K·@ 50¢Aug 21, 2026#80+$334.5K
NORWAY
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancestake $545.8K·@ 62¢Jun 30, 2026#81+$333.2K
YES
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?stake $307.5K·@ 48¢Jun 18, 2026#82+$332.6K
TEAM SECRET WHALES
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsstake $58.6K·@ 15¢Jul 5, 2026#83+$327.7K
NO
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?stake $237.0K·@ 42¢Oct 25, 2024#84+$327.3K
CANADA
Spread: Canada (-1.5)stake $400.0K·@ 55¢Jun 18, 2026#85+$326.4K
YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?stake $65.9K·@ 17¢May 22, 2026#86+$325.5K
YES
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?stake $235.2K·@ 42¢Oct 25, 2024#87+$321.2K
ALEXANDER ZVEREV
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevstake $1.5M·@ 82¢Jun 7, 2026#88+$320.3K
HURRICANES
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsstake $347.0K·@ 52¢Jun 9, 2026#89+$320.3K
HURRICANES
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsstake $347.0K·@ 52¢Jun 9, 2026#90+$310.5K
NO
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?stake $207.0K·@ 40¢Oct 22, 2024#91+$309.6K
NO
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?stake $240.3K·@ 44¢Jun 25, 2026#92+$308.1K
YES
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?stake $91.9K·@ 23¢Jun 25, 2026#93+$308.1K
YES
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?stake $91.9K·@ 23¢Jun 25, 2026#94+$307.0K
TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsstake $231.6K·@ 43¢Aug 23, 2026#95+$307.0K
TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsstake $231.6K·@ 43¢Aug 23, 2026#96+$302.6K
NO
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?stake $447.4K·@ 60¢Jun 25, 2026#97+$300.4K
YES
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?stake $122.7K·@ 29¢Jun 16, 2026#98+$300K
YES
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?stake $900K·@ 75¢Jun 18, 2026#99+$298.2K
YES
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22?stake $663.5K·@ 69¢Feb 22, 2026#100+$292.5K
YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?stake $36.2K·@ 11¢Jun 28, 2026