rivomarkets
Kalshi

empirical.penguin

+$6.8K
Tracked Trades
427
First Seen
Jul 14, 2026
Last Trade
Sep 19, 2026

empirical.penguin is a Kalshi trader with 427 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 21 wins and 100 losses on settled markets, $6.8K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: no Washington wins by over 3.5 runs,yes Los Angeles C,yes Chicago,yes Bo Nix: 200+,yes George Kittle: 1+ on Sep 19.

Win rate
17%
Return on settled
+49%
Money traded
$110.0K
Typical trade
$142
Copy score
12/100
Kalshi rank
#900

Profit over time

+$8.9K-$363
Aug 23Sep 19

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢25610%20%+10 pts
20 to 40¢8026%15%-11 pts
40 to 60¢2849%20%-29 pts
60 to 80¢2168%44%-24 pts
Over 80¢1891%

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $9210117%+$2.1K
$92 to $14210121%+$2.1K
$142 to $25410122%+$2.7K
$254 to $3.8K10031%+$863

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Sports10+$0

Side taken

Yes 77%23% No

If you had copied empirical.penguin

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$5644
Profit
on $10200 staked
21-81
Record
21% win rate
+55%
Return
218 still open
Profit over time102 settled trades
+$7.4K-$300
Jul 13Sep 14
-$2.2K
Max drawdown
29% below peak
2.6×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.70×
Profit factor
$13.7K won vs $8.1K lost
-3.4 pts
Edge vs implied
21% won at 24¢ avg
Longest losing streak
14
Deepest drawdown
24 trades

By category

other102 settled+55%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

216 open positions worth $30.8K

The markets empirical.penguin is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what empirical.penguin is holding

Recent positions

no Washington wins by over 3.5 runs,yes Los Angeles C,yes Chicago,yes Bo Nix: 200+,yes George Kittle: 1+
Sep 19, avg 6¢
BUYYES$375-$375
no New York M wins by over 3.5 runs,no A's wins by over 3.5 runs,yes Bobby Witt Jr.: 2+,yes Will Smith: 2+
Sep 19, avg 13¢
BUYYES$188-$188
yes Bryce Harper: 2+,yes Yordan Alvarez: 2+
Sep 19, avg 20¢
BUYYES$189-$189
See every position across 295 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    yes Petr Bar Biryukov,yes Yu Hsiou Hsu,yes Yun Seong Chung,yes Shunsuke Mitsui,yes Sunam Jeong,yes Ya Yi Yang,yes Los Angeles A wins by over 13.5 runs,yes HOU Texans,yes SF 49ers,yes Atlanta wins by over 12.5 points,yes Las Vegas wins by over 3.5 points
    $568 on Yes, Aug 29
    +$2.3K
  2. 2
    yes Chelsea wins 1st Half,yes Chelsea,yes Minnesota,yes Pittsburgh,no Boston wins by over 2.5 runs,yes Washington wins by over 1.5 runs
    $71 on Yes, Aug 24
    +$2.1K
  3. 3
    yes Cruz Azul wins 1st Half,no St. Louis wins by over 3.5 runs,yes Corbin Carroll: 2+,yes Over 5.5 runs scored
    $146 on Yes, Aug 29
    +$1.8K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

TradesWonProfit
yes Petr Bar Biryukov,yes Yu Hsiou Hsu,yes Yun Seong Chung,yes Shunsuke Mitsui,yes Sunam Jeong,yes Ya Yi Yang,yes Los Angeles A wins by over 13.5 runs,yes HOU Texans,yes SF 49ers,yes Atlanta wins by over 12.5 points,yes Las Vegas wins by over 3.5 points12+$0
yes Tie 1st Half,yes Pumas UNAM wins 1st Half,yes Chicago C,yes Atlanta,yes Over 5.5 runs scored20%-$92
yes Monterrey,yes Guadalajara,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 4.5 runs scored2+$0
Parlay: Dortmund + Not Tottenham + Not St. Louis wins by over 1.5 runs + Over 5.5 runs scored1+$0
yes Pittsburgh,yes Philadelphia,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored2+$0

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jun 22Sep 19

Profit by month

Aug 2026+$7.2K
Sep 2026+$692

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