rivomarkets
Kalshi

mess.dawn

+$23.1K
Tracked Trades
1,096
First Seen
Dec 24, 2025
Last Trade
Sep 19, 2026
Followers
4

mess.dawn is a Kalshi trader with 1,096 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 202 wins and 163 losses on settled markets, $23.1K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Indiana wins by over 44.5 points on Sep 19.

Win rate
55%
Return on settled
+24%
Money traded
$279.7K
Typical trade
$46
Copy score
47/100
Kalshi rank
#358

Profit over time

+$24.6K-$2.9K
Dec 24Sep 18

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢16110%21%+11 pts
20 to 40¢19728%23%-5 pts
40 to 60¢42450%66%+15 pts
60 to 80¢18769%86%+18 pts
Over 80¢12590%100%+10 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $827432%-$26
$8 to $4627479%+$691
$47 to $30727365%+$6.4K
$313 to $7.6K27354%+$17.6K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Sports3125%-$6.1K
Culture467%+$3.9K
Crypto10%-$291

Side taken

Yes 56%44% No

If you had copied mess.dawn

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$1634
Profit
on $27800 staked
147-131
Record
53% win rate
+6%
Return
161 still open
Profit over time278 settled trades
+$3.7K-$3.0K
Jun 22Sep 14
-$7.4K
Max drawdown
193% below peak
0.2×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.12×
Profit factor
$14.7K won vs $13.1K lost
+7.0 pts
Edge vs implied
53% won at 46¢ avg
Longest losing streak
74
Deepest drawdown
74 trades

By category

other258 settled+8%
sports16 settled-41%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

65 open positions worth $35.4K

The markets mess.dawn is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what mess.dawn is holding

Recent positions

Indiana wins by over 44.5 points
Sep 19, 2 fills, avg 52¢
BUYYES$3.0KOpen
no Wolverhampton wins by more than 1.5 goals,yes Real Betis,yes Real Madrid,yes Barcelona
Sep 19, avg 26¢
SELLNO$1.2KOpen
no Wolverhampton wins by more than 1.5 goals,yes Real Betis,yes Real Madrid,yes Barcelona
Sep 19, avg 29¢
BUYYES$1.3KOpen
See every position across 250 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    no Wolverhampton wins by more than 1.5 goals,yes Real Betis,yes Real Madrid,yes Barcelona
    $1.2K on Yes, Aug 27
    +$8.3K
  2. 2
    yes New York Y,yes Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 runs,yes Over 7.5 runs scored
    $954 on Yes, Aug 23
    +$5.2K
  3. 3
    yes San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs,yes Los Angeles D wins by over 1.5 runs
    $1.4K on Yes, Sep 18
    +$4.0K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

TradesWonProfit
no Wolverhampton wins by more than 1.5 goals,yes Real Betis,yes Real Madrid,yes Barcelona5100%+$8.3K
Will there be over 36.5 points scored?31100%+$3.9K
Will there be over 52.5 points scored?25100%+$770
Will there be over 40.5 points scored?300%-$2.9K
yes Toronto,yes Cincinnati,yes Cleveland,yes Atlanta wins by over 1.5 runs2+$0

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jun 22Sep 19

Profit by month

Dec 2025-$731
Jan 2026-$556
Mar 2026-$1
May 2026+$328
Jun 2026+$1.1K
Aug 2026+$20.5K
Sep 2026+$4.0K

Similar Kalshi traders

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