rivomarkets

outercircle

+$30.7K
Tracked Trades
2,814
First Seen
Aug 18, 2026
Last Trade
Sep 9, 2026
Followers
18

outercircle is a Kalshi trader with 2,814 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 450 wins and 1089 losses on settled markets, $30.7K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP09XIAGAL-XIA on Sep 9.

Win rate
29%
Return on settled
+32%
Money traded
$297.4K
Typical trade
$15
Copy score
27/100
Kalshi rank
#280

Profit over time

+$30.7K-$7.5K
Aug 18Sep 8

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢90111%10%-1 pts
20 to 40¢68728%21%-8 pts
40 to 60¢27249%40%-8 pts
60 to 80¢37969%75%+5 pts
Over 80¢57591%95%+4 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $470418%-$54
$4 to $1570429%-$614
$15 to $6370331%-$2.6K
$63 to $9.9K70344%+$34.0K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Sports3475%+$23.9K
Culture170%-$1.7K

Side taken

Yes 61%39% No

If you had copied outercircle

$100 per trade, last 90 days

-$20457
Profit
on $153900 staked
450-1089
Record
29% win rate
-13%
Return
97 still open
Profit over time1539 settled trades
+$0-$32.6K
Aug 17Sep 7
-$37.9K
Max drawdown
7485% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.81×
Profit factor
$88.4K won vs $108.9K lost
-2.5 pts
Edge vs implied
29% won at 32¢ avg
Longest losing streak
26
Deepest drawdown
1349 trades

By category

other1533 settled-14%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

37 open positions worth $7.5K

The markets outercircle is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what outercircle is holding

Recent positions

KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26SEP09XIAGAL-XIA
Sep 9, avg 89¢
SELLNO$890Open
Philadelphia wins
Sep 9, 2 fills, avg 70¢
SELLNO$1.3KOpen
Miami wins
Sep 9, 2 fills, avg 84¢
SELLNO$2.1KOpen
See every position across 542 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Dalibor Svrcina wins
    $4.0K on No, Sep 3
    +$14.9K
  2. 2
    Maxim Mrva wins
    $717 on No, Aug 20
    +$9.5K
  3. 3
    Madison Keys wins
    $680 on Yes, Sep 3
    +$6.3K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

TradesWonProfit
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the Tiafoe vs Auger-Aliassime: Round Of 16 match?2925%-$31
Will Yunchaokete Bu win the Budkov Kjaer vs Bu: Round Of 32 match?1+$0
Will Alex Hernandez win the Magadan vs Hernandez: Round Of 32 match?218%-$627
Karina Elena Gabriela Dumitru wins129%-$87
Minnesota vs Golden State women's Pro Basketball game: Golden State wins?1322%+$100

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jun 12Sep 9

Profit by month

Aug 2026+$1.0K
Sep 2026+$29.7K

Similar Kalshi traders

Copy outercircle on autopilot or by hand.

Everything on this page, live instead of a day late: every position as it opens, one-click copy from the tape, and autopilot that opens the same Kalshi position within seconds through your own API key, inside a per-trade and per-day ceiling you set. Alerts in the app and on Telegram, the simulator on their live record, and paper trading before real money.