rivomarkets

smoke.

+$7.9K
Tracked Trades
1,001
First Seen
Apr 15, 2026
Last Trade
Sep 4, 2026
Followers
251

smoke. is a Kalshi trader with 1,001 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 221 wins and 478 losses on settled markets, $7.9K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will it rain in Washington DC on Sep 3, 2026? on Sep 4.

Win rate
32%
Return on settled
+37%
Money traded
$139.2K
Typical trade
$8
Copy score
29/100
Kalshi rank
#804

Profit over time

+$9.6K-$1.7K
Apr 15Aug 23

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢5933%9%+6 pts
20 to 40¢5930%15%-15 pts
40 to 60¢1948%25%-23 pts
60 to 80¢4773%100%+27 pts
Over 80¢28396%100%+4 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $12513%-$4
$1 to $825015%+$225
$8 to $4825035%+$3.9K
$48 to $22K25079%+$3.7K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Culture1+$0

Side taken

Yes 64%36% No

If you had copied smoke.

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$23650
Profit
on $69300 staked
221-472
Record
32% win rate
+34%
Return
105 still open
Profit over time693 settled trades
+$28.2K-$2.4K
Jun 22Aug 17
-$21.3K
Max drawdown
49% below peak
1.1×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.50×
Profit factor
$70.8K won vs $47.2K lost
+4.0 pts
Edge vs implied
32% won at 28¢ avg
Longest losing streak
100
Deepest drawdown
378 trades

By category

other693 settled+34%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

2 open positions worth $675

The markets smoke. is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what smoke. is holding

Recent positions

Will it rain in Washington DC on Sep 3, 2026?
Sep 4, avg 90¢
SELLYES$720Open
Will Wyndham Clark win the BMW Championship?
Aug 23, 2 fills, avg 19¢
BUYNO$80-$80
Brandon Nakashima wins
Aug 23, avg 23¢
BUYYES$37-$37
See every position across 64 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will David Crowley be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
    $622 on Yes, Aug 11
    +$10.7K
  2. 2
    Will Wyndham Clark win the BMW Championship?
    $175 on Yes, Aug 21
    +$1.4K
  3. 3
    Los Angeles vs Minnesota women's Pro Basketball game: Los Angeles wins?
    $191 on Yes, Aug 7
    +$765
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

TradesWonProfit
Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?840%-$860
Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?60%-$122
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?34245%-$2.4K
Will Kendall Qualls be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota?650%-$233
Will David Crowley be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?103100%+$10.7K

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jun 7Sep 4

Profit by month

Apr 2026-$26
May 2026-$24
Jun 2026+$8
Jul 2026-$607
Aug 2026+$8.5K

Similar Kalshi traders

Copy smoke. on autopilot or by hand.

Everything on this page, live instead of a day late: every position as it opens, one-click copy from the tape, and autopilot that opens the same Kalshi position within seconds through your own API key, inside a per-trade and per-day ceiling you set. Alerts in the app and on Telegram, the simulator on their live record, and paper trading before real money.