rivomarkets

smudgy

+$345
Tracked Trades
306
First Seen
Apr 2, 2026
Last Trade
Sep 11, 2026
Followers
1

smudgy is a Kalshi trader with 306 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 55 wins and 20 losses on settled markets, $345 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: Los Angeles R wins? on Sep 11.

Win rate
73%
Return on settled
+1%
Money traded
$52.7K
Typical trade
$32
Copy score
75/100
Kalshi rank
#2,570

Profit over time

+$2.3K-$7.1K
Apr 2Sep 11

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢7511%100%+89 pts
20 to 40¢7533%84%+51 pts
40 to 60¢10649%68%+19 pts
60 to 80¢4873%0%-73 pts
Over 80¢292%

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $87783%+$12
$8 to $327792%+$256
$32 to $1277687%+$1.0K
$128 to $4.4K7653%-$970

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Sports450%-$955
Crypto2+$0

Side taken

Yes 68%32% No

If you had copied smudgy

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$5958
Profit
on $4200 staked
37-5
Record
88% win rate
+142%
Return
75 still open
Profit over time42 settled trades
+$6.0K+$0
Jul 6Sep 7
-$400
Max drawdown
8% below peak
14.9×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
12.92×
Profit factor
$6.5K won vs $500 lost
+49.6 pts
Edge vs implied
88% won at 38¢ avg
Longest losing streak
4
Deepest drawdown
4 trades

By category

other40 settled+149%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

8 open positions worth $6.4K

The markets smudgy is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what smudgy is holding

Recent positions

San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: Los Angeles R wins?
Sep 11, avg 50¢
BUYYES$2.0K-$2.0K
New England vs Seattle Pro Football game: Seattle wins?
Sep 10, 2 fills, avg 64¢
SELLNO$5.7KOpen
New England vs Seattle Pro Football game: Seattle wins?
Sep 10, 3 fills, avg 21¢
BUYYES$1.4K+$5.6K
See every position across 48 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    New England vs Seattle Pro Football game: Seattle wins?
    $1.4K on Yes, Sep 10
    +$5.6K
  2. 2
    BTC price up in next 15 mins?
    $1.9K on No, Sep 8
    +$3.0K
  3. 3
    Game 4: Carolina at Vegas Winner?
    $2.2K on Yes, Jun 9
    +$2.1K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

TradesWonProfit
BTC price up in next 15 mins?15692%+$3.8K
New England vs Seattle Pro Football game: Seattle wins?6100%+$6.6K
Game 4: Carolina at Vegas Winner?2100%+$2.1K
Game 4: San Antonio at New York Winner?10%-$3.2K
Game 1: Minnesota at San Antonio Winner?20%-$2.9K

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jun 14Sep 11

Profit by month

Apr 2026-$2.4K
May 2026-$4.2K
Jun 2026-$269
Sep 2026+$7.2K

Similar Kalshi traders

Copy smudgy on autopilot or by hand.

Everything on this page, live instead of a day late: every position as it opens, one-click copy from the tape, and autopilot that opens the same Kalshi position within seconds through your own API key, inside a per-trade and per-day ceiling you set. Alerts in the app and on Telegram, the simulator on their live record, and paper trading before real money.