rivomarkets
Kalshi

wasteful.firefly3699

+$1.3K
Tracked Trades
91
First Seen
Dec 19, 2025
Last Trade
Aug 26, 2026
Followers
1

wasteful.firefly3699 is a Kalshi trader with 91 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 9 wins and 14 losses on settled markets, $1.3K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Pittsburgh wins on Aug 26.

Win rate
39%
Return on settled
+13%
Money traded
$21.8K
Typical trade
$72
Copy score
22/100
Kalshi rank
#1,970

Profit over time

+$4.6K-$825
Aug 19Aug 26

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢1911%0%-11 pts
20 to 40¢2028%36%+8 pts
40 to 60¢4149%63%+14 pts
60 to 80¢470%
Over 80¢796%

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $1623+$0
$17 to $722333%-$60
$72 to $2382333%+$884
$247 to $4.6K2243%+$466

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Sports2100%+$314

Side taken

Yes 74%26% No

If you had copied wasteful.firefly3699

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$297
Profit
on $2300 staked
9-14
Record
39% win rate
+13%
Return
42 still open
Profit over time23 settled trades
+$325+$0
Jul 13Aug 24
-$492
Max drawdown
never got above break-even
0.6×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.21×
Profit factor
$1.7K won vs $1.4K lost
+6.6 pts
Edge vs implied
39% won at 33¢ avg
Longest losing streak
4
Deepest drawdown
7 trades

By category

other22 settled+9%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

25 open positions worth $4.5K

The markets wasteful.firefly3699 is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what wasteful.firefly3699 is holding

Recent positions

Pittsburgh wins
Aug 26, avg 44¢
BUYYES$247+$315
Miami wins
Aug 26, avg 98¢
SELLNO$991Open
Miami wins
Aug 26, 2 fills, avg 48¢
BUYYES$468-$468
See every position across 43 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    yes Indiana,yes Las Vegas,yes Dallas,yes Washington
    $2.0K on Yes, Aug 23
    +$5.4K
  2. 2
    yes Chicago WS,yes Pittsburgh
    $237 on Yes, Aug 25
    +$777
  3. 3
    Over 7.5 runs scored
    $481 on Yes, Aug 25
    +$565
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

TradesWonProfit
yes Petr Bar Biryukov,yes Yu Hsiou Hsu,yes Yun Seong Chung,yes Shunsuke Mitsui,yes Sunam Jeong,yes Ya Yi Yang,yes Los Angeles A wins by over 13.5 runs,yes HOU Texans,yes SF 49ers,yes Atlanta wins by over 12.5 points,yes Las Vegas wins by over 3.5 points60%-$4.8K
yes Indiana,yes Las Vegas,yes Dallas,yes Washington3100%+$5.4K
Miami wins30%-$468
Over 7.5 runs scored2100%+$565
yes San Diego,yes Chicago C,yes Los Angeles D1+$0

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

May 29Aug 26

Profit by month

Aug 2026+$1.3K

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