rivomarkets

Fernburn

fernburn

+$20.0K
Tracked Trades
969
First Seen
Jan 8, 2026
Last Trade
Sep 26, 2026
Followers
1

Fernburn is a Kalshi trader with 969 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 112 wins and 231 losses on settled markets, $20.0K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: yes UMass,yes James Madison wins by over 6.5 points,yes Oregon St. wins by over 11.5 points,yes UNLV wins by over 13.5 points,yes Over 43.5 points scored,yes Over 43.5 points scored,yes Over 43.5 points scored on Sep 26.

Win rate
33%
Return on settled
+314%
Money traded
$23.9K
Typical trade
$5
Copy score
26/100
Kalshi rank
#175

Profit over time

+$19.6K-$1.1K
Jan 8Sep 26

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢2259%14%+4 pts
20 to 40¢23130%34%+4 pts
40 to 60¢22550%40%-9 pts
60 to 80¢13069%58%-11 pts
Over 80¢13990%100%+10 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $223818%+$24
$2 to $523829%+$57
$5 to $1923735%-$9
$19 to $93623748%+$19.6K

Side taken

Yes 80%20% No

If you had copied Fernburn

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$3642
Profit
on $26100 staked
81-180
Record
31% win rate
+14%
Return
40 still open
Profit over time261 settled trades
+$3.6K-$2.0K
Jun 29Sep 21
-$4.2K
Max drawdown
892% below peak
0.9×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.20×
Profit factor
$21.6K won vs $18.0K lost
-0.9 pts
Edge vs implied
31% won at 32¢ avg
Longest losing streak
26
Deepest drawdown
66 trades

By category

other261 settled+14%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

32 open positions worth $1.4K

The markets Fernburn is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what Fernburn is holding

Recent positions

yes UMass,yes James Madison wins by over 6.5 points,yes Oregon St. wins by over 11.5 points,yes UNLV wins by over 13.5 points,yes Over 43.5 points scored,yes Over 43.5 points scored,yes Over 43.5 points scored
Sep 26, avg 4¢
BUYYES$936+$20.3K
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Sep 23, 4 fills, avg 34¢
BUYYES$153-$153
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Sep 23, avg 2¢
SELLNO$1Open
See every position across 553 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    yes UMass,yes James Madison wins by over 6.5 points,yes Oregon St. wins by over 11.5 points,yes UNLV wins by over 13.5 points,yes Over 43.5 points scored,yes Over 43.5 points scored,yes Over 43.5 points scored
    $936 on Yes, Sep 26
    +$20.3K
  2. 2
    BTC price up in next 15 mins?
    $218 on Yes, Sep 18
    +$224
  3. 3
    Boise St. at UNLV Winner?
    $144 on Yes, Jan 14
    +$176
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

TradesWonProfit
BTC price up in next 15 mins?28636%+$358
Miami (FL) wins by over 57.5 points180%-$484
yes UMass,yes James Madison wins by over 6.5 points,yes Oregon St. wins by over 11.5 points,yes UNLV wins by over 13.5 points,yes Over 43.5 points scored,yes Over 43.5 points scored,yes Over 43.5 points scored1100%+$20.3K
yes Austin Reaves: 20+,yes LeBron James: 20+1+$0
yes Donovan Mitchell: 25+,yes Scottie Barnes: 20+,yes Jalen Brunson: 25+,yes Karl-Anthony Towns: 20+1+$0

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jun 29Sep 26

Profit by month

Jan 2026-$480
Feb 2026-$90
Mar 2026+$53
Apr 2026+$74
May 2026+$46
Aug 2026-$39
Sep 2026+$20.1K

Similar Kalshi traders

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