rivomarkets
Kalshi

hard.square

-$758
Tracked Trades
324
First Seen
Jan 11, 2026
Last Trade
Sep 20, 2026
Followers
16

hard.square is a Kalshi trader with 324 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 10 wins and 15 losses on settled markets, -$758 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: no SF 49ers,yes Over 39.5 points scored on Sep 20.

Win rate
40%
Return on settled
-30%
Money traded
$33.6K

Profit over time

+$157-$860
Mar 1Sep 18

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢13910%0%-10 pts
20 to 40¢8029%36%+8 pts
40 to 60¢6347%0%-47 pts
60 to 80¢3666%100%+34 pts
Over 80¢689%100%+11 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $15810%-$28
$15 to $478143%-$35
$47 to $1118163%+$278
$112 to $1.7K8129%-$972

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Crypto4+$0

Side taken

Yes 90%10% No

If you had copied hard.square

$100 per trade, last 90 days

Not enough settled trades to score yet

3 of 5 needed have resolved. 25 still open.

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

22 open positions worth $4.1K

The markets hard.square is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what hard.square is holding

Recent positions

no SF 49ers,yes Over 39.5 points scored
Sep 20, avg 86¢
SELLNO$826Open
yes New York Y,yes Over 2.5 runs scored,yes Over 3.5 runs scored,yes Over 3.5 runs scored,yes Over 3.5 runs scored
Sep 19, avg 84¢
SELLNO$1.0KOpen
yes Over 4.5 runs scored,yes Over 3.5 runs scored,yes Over 3.5 runs scored,yes Over 3.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Texas Tech wins by over 2.5 points,yes Miami (FL) wins by over 9.5 points,yes Oregon wins by over 41.5 points,yes Over 37.5 points scored,yes Over 45.5 points scored,yes Over 54.5 points scored,no Indiana wins by over 22.5 points,yes Golden State wins by over 1.5 points,yes Over 179.5 points scored,yes Over 163.5 points scored,yes Over 148.5 points scored
Sep 18, avg 4¢
BUYYES$46-$46
See every position across 227 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Golden State at Houston Winner?
    $144 on Yes, Mar 6
    +$244
  2. 2
    Detroit at Nashville Winner?
    $490 on Yes, Mar 2
    +$203
  3. 3
    Game 2: Houston at Los Angeles L Winner?
    $67 on Yes, Apr 22
    +$130
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

TradesWonProfit
Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?4+$0
yes Houston,yes New York wins by over 3.5 points,yes Denver wins by over 4.5 points,yes Cleveland wins by over 6.5 points,yes Over 204.5 points scored,yes Over 192.5 points scored,yes Over 207.5 points scored2+$0
yes New York Y,yes Over 2.5 runs scored,yes Over 3.5 runs scored,yes Over 3.5 runs scored,yes Over 3.5 runs scored1+$0
no SF 49ers,yes Over 39.5 points scored1+$0
Detroit at Nashville Winner?12100%+$203

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jun 23Sep 20

Profit by month

Mar 2026-$694
Apr 2026+$57
Sep 2026-$121

Similar Kalshi traders

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Everything on this page, live instead of a day late: every position as it opens, one-click copy from the tape, and autopilot that opens the same Kalshi position within seconds through your own API key, inside a per-trade and per-day ceiling you set. Alerts in the app and on Telegram, the simulator on their live record, and paper trading before real money.

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