rivomarkets
Kalshi

Misfortune.TK

misfortune.tk

+$451
Tracked Trades
902
First Seen
Jun 16, 2026
Last Trade
Sep 21, 2026

Misfortune.TK is a Kalshi trader with 902 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 24 wins and 54 losses on settled markets, $451 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: yes Spencer Johnson,yes Hokori,yes Team Yandex,yes Janae Preston,yes Olivia Lincer,yes Maria Sholokhova,yes Duru Soke on Sep 21.

Win rate
31%
Return on settled
+11%
Money traded
$39.0K
Typical trade
$18
Copy score
22/100
Kalshi rank
#2,504

Profit over time

+$758-$207
Jun 16Sep 21

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢6005%3%-2 pts
20 to 40¢10329%36%+7 pts
40 to 60¢8950%17%-34 pts
60 to 80¢1969%60%-9 pts
Over 80¢6691%91%-1 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $922013%-$56
$9 to $182190%-$141
$18 to $2821927%+$58
$28 to $2.3K21959%+$224

Side taken

Yes 89%11% No

If you had copied Misfortune.TK

$100 per trade, last 90 days

-$2125
Profit
on $6400 staked
19-45
Record
30% win rate
-33%
Return
721 still open
Profit over time64 settled trades
+$0-$3.1K
Jun 22Sep 21
-$3.2K
Max drawdown
never got above break-even
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.53×
Profit factor
$2.4K won vs $4.5K lost
-5.8 pts
Edge vs implied
30% won at 36¢ avg
Longest losing streak
15
Deepest drawdown
55 trades

By category

other64 settled-33%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

660 open positions worth $22.8K

The markets Misfortune.TK is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what Misfortune.TK is holding

Recent positions

yes Spencer Johnson,yes Hokori,yes Team Yandex,yes Janae Preston,yes Olivia Lincer,yes Maria Sholokhova,yes Duru Soke
Sep 21, avg 31¢
BUYYES$48+$105
yes Valerio Aboian,yes Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo,yes Federico Arnaboldi,yes Mark Lajal,yes Spencer Johnson,yes Blu Baker,yes Frederic Schlossmann,yes Janae Preston,yes Olivia Lincer,yes Oksana Selekhmeteva
Sep 21, avg 27¢
BUYYES$57+$155
yes Sandro Kopp,yes Murphy Cassone,yes Andrea Guerrieri,yes Pavel Lagutin,yes Adrian Andreev,yes Yanaki Milev
Sep 21, avg 13¢
BUYYES$19-$19
See every position across 721 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will Wyndham Clark lead at the end of Round 2 in the BMW Championship?
    $335 on Yes, Aug 21
    +$649
  2. 2
    yes Sayaka Ishii,yes Rira Kosaka,yes Remika Ohashi,yes Yui Chikaraishi,yes Jiangxue HAN,yes Ayumi Miyamoto,yes Anri Nagata,yes Miyu Nakashima,yes Kamilla Rakhimova,yes Nao Hibino
    $19 on Yes, Sep 21
    +$222
  3. 3
    Ben Shelton wins by over 1.5 sets?
    $214 on Yes, Sep 11
    +$161
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

TradesWonProfit
yes Enrico Dalla Valle,yes Marcel Granollers / Horacio Zeballos,yes Harri Heliovaara / Henry Patten,yes Carlos Alcaraz,yes Frances Tiafoe,yes Eduardo Lage,yes Isabella Barrera Aguirre,yes Sofia Elena Cabezas Dominguez,yes Ana Victoria Gobbi Monllau,yes Josefina Estevez,yes New York Y,yes Milwaukee,yes Toronto,yes AEK Athens,yes Dortmund,yes Manchester City,yes Real Madrid,yes Cagla Buyukakcay,yes Leolia Jeanjean,yes Kaitlin Quevedo,yes Martina Trevisan,yes Gabriela Dabrowski / Luisa Stefani,yes Katerina Siniakova / Taylor Townsend,yes Jessica Pegula,yes Aryna Sabalenka2+$0
yes Petr Bar Biryukov,yes Yu Hsiou Hsu,yes Yun Seong Chung,yes Shunsuke Mitsui,yes Sunam Jeong,yes Ya Yi Yang,yes Los Angeles A wins by over 13.5 runs,yes HOU Texans,yes SF 49ers,yes Atlanta wins by over 12.5 points,yes Las Vegas wins by over 3.5 points350%-$738
Will Meng Yi Chen win the Kim vs Chen: W15 Tianjin Round of 16 match?12+$0
yes Taylor Fritz,yes Lorenzo Musetti,yes Mirra Andreeva1+$0
yes New York Y,yes Pittsburgh,yes Philadelphia,yes St. Louis,yes Toronto,yes Minnesota,yes Milwaukee,yes Chicago C,yes Texas,yes Houston,yes Los Angeles D2+$0

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jun 24Sep 21

Profit by month

Jun 2026-$18
Jul 2026-$27
Aug 2026-$22
Sep 2026+$153

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