rivomarkets
Kalshi

Short.Pale.Man

short.pale.man

+$327
Tracked Trades
4,748
First Seen
Aug 8, 2026
Last Trade
Sep 21, 2026
Followers
1

Short.Pale.Man is a Kalshi trader with 4,748 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 106 wins and 38 losses on settled markets, $327 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? on Sep 21.

Win rate
74%
Return on settled
+2%
Money traded
$773.8K
Typical trade
$45
Copy score
66/100
Kalshi rank
#2,578

Profit over time

+$434-$127
Aug 8Aug 22

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢3988%0%-8 pts
20 to 40¢18528%0%-28 pts
40 to 60¢38254%36%-19 pts
60 to 80¢107571%73%+3 pts
Over 80¢254892%96%+4 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $7114746%-$28
$7 to $45114773%-$151
$45 to $181114784%+$376
$182 to $5.7K114794%+$129

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Culture51100%+$27
Sports1+$0

Side taken

Yes 45%55% No

If you had copied Short.Pale.Man

$100 per trade, last 90 days

-$1227
Profit
on $14400 staked
106-38
Record
74% win rate
-9%
Return
1727 still open
Profit over time144 settled trades
+$0-$1.2K
Aug 3Sep 21
-$1.4K
Max drawdown
1116% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.68×
Profit factor
$2.6K won vs $3.8K lost
+1.3 pts
Edge vs implied
74% won at 72¢ avg
Longest losing streak
5
Deepest drawdown
83 trades

By category

other143 settled-9%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

875 open positions worth $238.4K

The markets Short.Pale.Man is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what Short.Pale.Man is holding

Recent positions

Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
Sep 21, 74 fills, avg 29¢
BUYNO$199Open
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?
Sep 21, 70 fills, avg 72¢
SELLYES$1.1KOpen
Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score?
Sep 21, 3 fills, avg 74¢
SELLYES$516Open
See every position across 1,136 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will Instacart App Downloads for August 2026 be above 120 ?
    $452 on Yes, Aug 12
    +$271
  2. 2
    Will United Airlines Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 104 ?
    $248 on Yes, Aug 15
    +$203
  3. 3
    Will American Airlines Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 101.5 ?
    $370 on Yes, Aug 14
    +$120
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

TradesWonProfit
Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW?12+$0
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?407+$0
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for August 2026 be above 19.2¢?12100%+$46
Will the number of visitors to Florida in 2026 be above 136 million?3+$0
Will Wyoming’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 be above 180 MMst?7+$0

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jun 24Sep 21

Profit by month

Aug 2026+$327

Similar Kalshi traders

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