bad.tree
+$6.7K
- Tracked Trades
- 443
- First Seen
- Feb 1, 2026
- Last Trade
- Sep 24, 2026
- Followers
- 12
- Best In Baseball
- 40% won · 48 settled · +$3.1K
bad.tree is a Kalshi trader with 443 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 83 wins and 102 losses on settled markets, $6.7K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Meng Yi Chen wins on Sep 24.
- Win rate
- 45%
- Return on settled
- +27%
- Money traded
- $49.5K
- Typical trade
- $30
- Copy score
- 42/100
- Kalshi rank
- #725
Profit over time
+$10.9K-$754
Feb 1Sep 24
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢988%3%-5 pts
20 to 40¢13431%48%+16 pts
40 to 60¢10550%67%+18 pts
60 to 80¢5069%33%-36 pts
Over 80¢5692%0%-92 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $811137%-$5
$8 to $3011148%+$129
$31 to $11311134%-$543
$117 to $1.8K11054%+$7.1K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Soccer20046%+$604
Tennis4645%-$586
Baseball6440%+$3.1K
Parlays1750%+$3.5K
NBA3238%-$160
College basketball2286%+$265
Side taken
Yes 73%27% No
If you had copied bad.tree
$100 per trade, last 90 days
+$3926
Profit
on $13200 staked
66-66
Record
50% win rate
+30%
Return
28 still open
+$6.5K-$221
Jun 29Sep 21
-$2.8K
Max drawdown
42% below peak
1.4×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.59×
Profit factor
$10.5K won vs $6.6K lost
+14.8 pts
Edge vs implied
50% won at 35¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 18
- Deepest drawdown
- 40 trades
By category
other129 settled+29%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Open positions
10 open positions worth $2.4K
The markets bad.tree is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.
Recent positions
KXITFWMATCH-26SEP24DOUGOM-GOM
Sep 24, 2 fills, avg 86¢
KXITFWMATCH-26SEP24DOUGOM-GOM
Sep 24, avg 51¢
Netherlands wins
Sep 24, avg 36¢
Biggest wins
- 1+$3.1Kyes HOU Texans,yes LA Chargers,yes Over 35.5 points scored,yes Over 21.5 points scored$949 on Yes, Aug 26
- 2+$1.4KPittsburgh wins$943 on Yes, Sep 18
- 3+$1.1KValencia wins$236 on Yes, Sep 15
Most traded markets
TradesWonProfit
KXITFWMATCH-26SEP24DOUGOM-GOM30%-$1.1K
Toronto vs New York City Winner?170%-$142
Boston wins11100%+$866
Elena Milovanovic wins30%-$482
Santander wins20%-$237
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jun 27Sep 24
Profit by month
Feb 2026-$276
Mar 2026+$192
Apr 2026-$169
May 2026-$28
Jun 2026-$76
Jul 2026-$14
Aug 2026+$5.4K
Sep 2026+$1.7K
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