PolymarketFairValueMachine
0xd84403efd50b49a1d8a7181627e00307e6ea5908
+$2.0K
- Tracked Trades
- 999
- First Seen
- Sep 28, 2026
- Last Trade
- Sep 29, 2026
- Best In Bitcoin
- 54% won · 999 settled · +$2.0K
FairValueMachine is a Polymarket trader with 999 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 540 wins and 459 losses on settled markets, $2.0K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET on Sep 29.
- Win rate
- 54%
- Return on settled
- +15%
- Money traded
- $13.7K
- Typical trade
- $21
- Copy score
- 51/100
- Polymarket rank
- #2,024
Profit over time
+$1.3K-$145
Sep 28Sep 29
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢2516%28%+12 pts
20 to 40¢14932%41%+9 pts
40 to 60¢24949%51%+2 pts
60 to 80¢17368%69%+2 pts
Over 80¢2783%74%-9 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $815646%+$22
$8 to $2115649%+$632
$21 to $3215657%+$363
$32 to $8215564%+$269
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Bitcoin62354%+$1.3K
Side taken
Yes 0%100% No
If you had copied FairValueMachine
$100 per trade, last 90 days
+$8620
Profit
on $62300 staked
336-287
Record
54% win rate
+14%
Return
-$1.3K
Max drawdown
45% below peak
6.8×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.30×
Profit factor
$37.3K won vs $28.7K lost
+3.5 pts
Edge vs implied
54% won at 50¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 7
- Deepest drawdown
- 147 trades
By category
culture475 settled+14%
crypto107 settled+14%
other41 settled+9%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
Sep 29, 2 fills, avg 48¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
Sep 29, 4 fills, avg 61¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
Sep 29, avg 16¢
Biggest wins
- 1+$335Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$474 on Down, Sep 29
- 2+$313Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$337 on Up, Sep 28
- 3+$309Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$495 on Down, Sep 29
Most traded markets
TradesWonProfit
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET2748%+$52
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET2861%+$171
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET2442%-$100
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET2361%+$59
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET1856%-$29
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 2Sep 29
Profit by month
Sep 2026+$1.3K
Similar Polymarket traders
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