light.mud
+$1.2K
- Tracked Trades
- 820
- First Seen
- Aug 14, 2026
- Last Trade
- Sep 25, 2026
- Followers
- 28
- Best In Tennis
- 29% won · 180 settled · +$988
light.mud is a Kalshi trader with 820 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 130 wins and 189 losses on settled markets, $1.2K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: ETH price up in next 15 mins? on Sep 25.
- Win rate
- 41%
- Return on settled
- +6%
- Money traded
- $42.4K
- Typical trade
- $7
- Copy score
- 36/100
- Kalshi rank
- #2,342
Profit over time
+$1.3K-$1.5K
Aug 15Sep 25
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢2027%25%+18 pts
20 to 40¢11031%7%-24 pts
40 to 60¢27950%52%+2 pts
60 to 80¢15965%12%-53 pts
Over 80¢7092%97%+5 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $120528%-$30
$1 to $720528%-$69
$7 to $4220538%-$197
$42 to $2.0K20562%+$1.5K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Tennis31029%+$988
Bitcoin16954%+$863
Parlays5850%+$689
XRP49+$0
Commodities5678%-$97
Baseball290%-$839
Side taken
Yes 68%32% No
If you had copied light.mud
$100 per trade, last 90 days
-$7969
Profit
on $31900 staked
130-189
Record
41% win rate
-25%
Return
255 still open
+$420-$12.0K
Aug 10Sep 21
-$13.1K
Max drawdown
2111% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.58×
Profit factor
$10.9K won vs $18.9K lost
-14.4 pts
Edge vs implied
41% won at 55¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 76
- Deepest drawdown
- 181 trades
By category
other313 settled-25%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Open positions
85 open positions worth $9.3K
The markets light.mud is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.
Recent positions
ETH price up in next 15 mins?
Sep 25, 11 fills, avg 99¢
ETH price up in next 15 mins?
Sep 25, avg 42¢
XRP price up in next 15 mins?
Sep 25, 12 fills, avg 96¢
Biggest wins
- 1+$818BTC price up in next 15 mins?$960 on No, Sep 23
- 2+$618KXBTC15M-26SEP250000-00$1.1K on No, Sep 25
- 3+$527Chase Ferguson wins$790 on Yes, Sep 11
Most traded markets
TradesWonProfit
BTC price up in next 15 mins?16854%+$245
Gold price up in next 15 mins?5678%-$97
XRP price up in next 15 mins?48+$0
Houston wins90%-$632
Meiqi Guo wins770%-$506
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jun 28Sep 25
Profit by month
Aug 2026-$1.1K
Sep 2026+$2.3K
Similar Kalshi traders
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