obvious.heron
+$3.7K
- Tracked Trades
- 1,420
- First Seen
- Sep 30, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 9, 2026
- Followers
- 8
- Best In Bitcoin
- 87% won · 791 settled · +$3.7K
obvious.heron is a Kalshi trader with 1,420 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 687 wins and 104 losses on settled markets, $3.7K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: BTC price up in next 15 mins? on Oct 9.
- Win rate
- 87%
- Return on settled
- +3%
- Money traded
- $133.1K
- Typical trade
- $5
- Avg entry
- 88¢
- Kalshi rank
- #1,522
Profit over time
+$3.1K-$2.1K
Sep 30Oct 9
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢6124%0%-4 pts
20 to 40¢922%0%-22 pts
40 to 60¢955%100%+45 pts
60 to 80¢9074%74%+0 pts
Over 80¢68893%93%+0 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $035287%-$1
$0 to $535280%-$33
$5 to $7235283%-$245
$72 to $2.9K35291%+$3.3K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Bitcoin140887%+$3.1K
Side taken
Yes 47%53% No
If you had copied obvious.heron
$100 per trade, last 90 days
-$3758
Profit
on $77900 staked
675-104
Record
87% win rate
-5%
Return
+$0-$3.8K
Sep 28Oct 5
-$6.3K
Max drawdown
1285% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.64×
Profit factor
$6.6K won vs $10.4K lost
-0.6 pts
Edge vs implied
87% won at 87¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 31
- Deepest drawdown
- 286 trades
By category
other6 settled+21%
crypto773 settled-5%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 9, 3 fills
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 8
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 8, 2 fills
Biggest wins
- 1+$471BTC price up in next 15 mins?$1.6K on No at 77¢, Oct 6
- 2+$308BTC price up in next 15 mins?$685 on No at 69¢, Oct 6
- 3+$294BTC price up in next 15 mins?$686 on No at 70¢, Oct 5
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
BTC price up in next 15 mins?88¢140887%+$3.1K
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 12Oct 9
Profit by month
Sep 2026+$136
Oct 2026+$2.9K
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