Fed Rate Decision Odds
Live odds for the Fed's next rate decision from Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini. Compare every decision's price, order book and whale bets across venues.
KalshiPolymarketPolymarket USGemini
Polymarket
GeminiNo change
65%
+10 pts
- 66%
- 66%
- 66%
- 67%
Hike 25 bps
34%
−10 pts
- 35%
- 34%
- 34%
- 36%
Hike 50+ bps
1%
- 1%
- 1%
- 2%
- 2%
Live odds
0%25%50%75%
No change65%Hike 25 bps34%Hike 50+ bps1%Cut 50+ bps1%Cut 25 bps1%
Sep 1Sep 13Sep 25
The median price across venues, this month. Point at a name to pick out its line, or at the graph to read every decision on that day.
| Week | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 66% | 66% | 66% | 67% | |
| Hike 25 bps | 35% | 34% | 34% | 36% | |
| Hike 50+ bps | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | |
| Cut 50+ bps | 1% | <1% | 2% | 2% | |
| Cut 25 bps | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
Order booksNo change YES
Kalshi
Yes priceSizeValue
66¢32K$21K
67¢17K$11K
68¢13K$8.6K
69¢30K$21K
70¢20K$14K
Spread1¢
65¢5.1K$3.3K
64¢1.4K$872
63¢70$44
62¢4.3K$2.7K
61¢14K$8.3K
Polymarket
Yes priceSizeValue
66¢9.4K$6.2K
67¢357K$239K
68¢8.2K$5.6K
69¢5.8K$4.0K
70¢8.8K$6.2K
Spread1¢
65¢119K$77K
64¢209K$134K
63¢8.8K$5.5K
62¢50$31
61¢190$116
Polymarket US
Yes priceSizeValue
66¢6.1K$4.0K
67¢15$10
68¢298$202
69¢7.4K$5.1K
70¢25K$17K
Spread1¢
65¢10$7
64¢91$59
63¢1.7K$1.1K
62¢25K$16K
61¢25K$15K
Gemini
Yes priceSizeValue
67¢250$168
68¢625$425
Spread4¢
63¢250$158
62¢322$200
1¢10$0
Where to bet
- PolymarketCheapest on 3 of 5 decisions
- KalshiCheapest on 0 of 5 decisions
- Polymarket USCheapest on 0 of 5 decisions
- GeminiCheapest on 0 of 5 decisions
Whale trades
- $4.9K4h ago
YES No change @ 66¢
- $9.8K10h ago
NO Hike 25 bps @ 68¢
- $7.9K10h ago
NO No change @ 34.5¢
- See all 2,598 whale trades
Biggest positions
No change leads at 65%, up 31 pts this week. Hike 25 bps next at 34%. Polymarket carries 80% of the day's $2.5M volume. Whales put $2.7M on YES and $2.1M on NO in 30 days, most on No change. Settles Oct 28, 2026.