Senate Control Odds 2026
Live odds for control of the Senate from Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. Compare every party's price, order book and whale bets across venues.
KalshiPolymarketPolymarket US
PolymarketDemocrats
63%
+1 pts
- 63%
- 63%
- 62%
Republicans
38%
- 38%
- 38%
- 39%
Live odds
40%50%60%
Democrats63%Republicans38%
Sep 1Sep 13Sep 25
The median price across venues, this month. Point at a name to pick out its line, or at the graph to read every party on that day.
| Week | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 63% | 63% | 62% | |
| Republicans | 38% | 38% | 39% |
Order booksDemocrats YES
Kalshi
Yes priceSizeValue
63¢37K$24K
64¢48K$31K
65¢61K$40K
66¢6.2K$4.1K
67¢8.6K$5.7K
Spread1¢
62¢48K$30K
61¢54K$33K
60¢14K$8.5K
59¢15K$8.7K
58¢2.9K$1.7K
Polymarket
Yes priceSizeValue
63¢95K$60K
64¢62K$40K
65¢95K$62K
66¢13K$8.6K
67¢10K$7.0K
Spread1¢
62¢69K$43K
61¢49K$30K
60¢596K$358K
59¢227$134
58¢91$53
Polymarket US
Yes priceSizeValue
61.9¢19K$12K
62.8¢1$1
62.9¢16$10
63¢1.0K$630
69.8¢12$8
Spread0.1¢
61.8¢106K$66K
61.4¢300$184
61.3¢12$7
61.2¢200$122
61.1¢60$37
Where to bet
- Polymarket USCheapest on 1 of 2 parties
- KalshiCheapest on 0 of 2 parties
- PolymarketCheapest on 0 of 2 parties
Whale trades
- $2.1K8h ago
YES Republicans @ 39.1¢
Polymarket US
- $2.0K8h ago
YES Republicans @ 39.1¢
Polymarket US
- $1.5K8h ago
YES Republicans @ 39.1¢
Polymarket US
- See all 987 whale trades
Biggest positions
Democrats is ahead at 63%, down 3 pts this week. Republicans next at 38%. Kalshi carries 83% of the day's $192K volume. Whales put $876K on YES and $674K on NO in 30 days, most on Democrats. Settles Nov 3, 2026.