rivomarkets

running.swordtail1283

-$26.7K
Tracked Trades
1,114
First Seen
May 9, 2026
Last Trade
Sep 27, 2026

running.swordtail1283 is a Kalshi trader with 1,114 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 76 wins and 713 losses on settled markets, -$26.7K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: yes San Francisco,yes Baltimore,yes Minnesota,yes Trey McBride: 1+,yes George Kittle: 1+,yes Derrick Henry: 1+,yes Aaron Jones Sr.: 1+ on Sep 27.

Win rate
10%
Return on settled
-12%
Money traded
$1.2M
Typical trade
$265
Avg entry
5¢
Kalshi rank
#5,364

Profit over time

+$2.9K-$36.7K
May 9Sep 27

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢6655%4%-1 pts
20 to 40¢14128%25%-3 pts
40 to 60¢4849%46%-3 pts
60 to 80¢2771%0%-71 pts
Over 80¢23394%100%+6 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $452793%-$2.5K
$45 to $2662794%-$10.1K
$267 to $94127817%-$9.5K
$945 to $63K27836%-$4.5K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Parlays10229%-$23.9K
Baseball3325%-$3.0K
Soccer170%-$1.2K
Bitcoin210%-$460
NFL2100%+$1.2K
College football10%-$893

Side taken

Yes 73%27% No

If you had copied running.swordtail1283

$100 per trade, last 90 days

-$6743
Profit
on $26500 staked
49-216
Record
18% win rate
-25%
Return
22 still open
Profit over time265 settled trades
+$195-$6.7K
Jul 6Sep 21
-$7.3K
Max drawdown
1233% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.69×
Profit factor
$14.9K won vs $21.6K lost
+0.8 pts
Edge vs implied
18% won at 18¢ avg
Longest losing streak
29
Deepest drawdown
254 trades

By category

other263 settled-26%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

21 open positions worth $4.0K

The markets running.swordtail1283 is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what running.swordtail1283 is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
yes San Francisco,yes Baltimore,yes Minnesota,yes Trey McBride: 1+,yes George Kittle: 1+,yes Derrick Henry: 1+,yes Aaron Jones Sr.: 1+
Sep 27
Yes2¢$93-$93
no SF 49ers,yes Over 39.5 points scored
Sep 27
Sold Nosold 89¢$2.0KExited
yes San Francisco,yes Baltimore,yes Pittsburgh,yes Indianapolis,yes Seattle
Sep 27
Yes13¢$283-$283
See every position across 600 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    yes Baltimore,yes Boston,yes Chicago C,yes Cleveland,yes Philadelphia,yes Seattle
    $750 on Yes at 6¢, Jul 12
    +$12.0K
  2. 2
    yes Los Angeles A,yes Cincinnati,yes New York M,yes Milwaukee,yes Chicago C
    $1.7K on Yes at 16¢, Aug 6
    +$8.9K
  3. 3
    yes Over 13.5 runs scored,yes Over 11.5 runs scored,yes Over 3.5 runs scored,no Over 8.5 runs scored,no Over 9.5 runs scored
    $187 on Yes at 2¢, Jun 24
    +$7.9K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
yes Minnesota,yes Pittsburgh,yes Tampa Bay,yes Boston,yes Philadelphia,yes Atlanta2¢20%-$1.3K
yes Philadelphia,yes Washington,yes Toronto,yes New York Y,yes Cincinnati,yes Atlanta,yes Milwaukee,yes St. Louis,yes Colorado,yes Minnesota,yes Houston,yes Arizona,yes Tampa Bay0¢20%-$93
yes Boston,yes Chicago C,yes Cleveland,yes Philadelphia,yes Tampa Bay4¢20%-$748
yes Texas,yes Boston,yes Tampa Bay,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,no Over 10.5 runs scored,no Over 11.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,no Over 11.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored1¢20%-$187
yes Cleveland,yes Boston,yes Baltimore,yes Detroit,yes Miami,yes Philadelphia,yes Milwaukee,yes Texas,yes San Diego,yes San Francisco0¢20%-$74

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jun 30Sep 27

Profit by month

May 2026-$2.0K
Jun 2026-$18.1K
Jul 2026-$12.7K
Aug 2026+$12.5K
Sep 2026-$6.4K

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