The short answer: Robinhood prediction markets are event contracts inside the Robinhood app. You buy Yes or No on an outcome for between 1 and 99 cents. A correct contract settles at $1. An incorrect one settles at $0. Robinhood is the broker, not the exchange: Robinhood Derivatives sends each order to a CFTC-regulated exchange, and Kalshi is one of them.
Our take: Robinhood is the easiest way into prediction markets for someone who already has the app. Traders who place resting orders, trade cheap or expensive contracts, or want an API get more from an account on the exchange itself.
How do Robinhood prediction markets work?
An event contract is a derivative on a Yes or No question. Will this team win tonight? Will the Fed cut rates at its next meeting? Will Bitcoin close the next 15 minutes higher? Each question lists a Yes contract and a No contract.
- The price is the probability. Robinhood's help center says a 65 cent contract implies roughly a 65% chance.
- The payout is fixed. A correct contract settles at $1. An incorrect contract settles at $0.
- Your risk is what you paid. Contracts are paid in full from settled cash. Robinhood does not let you use instant deposits for them.
- You can leave early. A contract sells at the current market price any time before it expires.
Robinhood's own wording is exact: event contracts "allow for speculation in prediction markets" and "are not bets". They are regulated as futures products, which is why you need a derivatives account to trade them. The same pricing logic runs every exchange in this market, and reading prediction market odds covers it in full.
Which exchange do Robinhood prediction markets trade on?
Four of them. Robinhood's disclosures say event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant and NFA member, through these exchanges:
Robinhood started Rothera with a selection of soccer and professional baseball contracts and says it will route more events there over time. Its help center does not publish which contract goes to which exchange. The exchange matters for two reasons: the exchange writes the rules that settle your contract, and the exchange sets the second fee you pay.
Robinhood Derivatives is not FDIC insured or SIPC protected, according to its own disclosures. That is normal for a futures account and worth knowing before you fund one.
What can you trade on Robinhood prediction markets?
Robinhood's prediction markets hub lists these categories:
- Sports: pro and college football, basketball, baseball, hockey, soccer, tennis, golf, cricket, MMA, boxing, racing and esports.
- Crypto: short windows such as 15 minute up or down markets on major coins, settled on an average of benchmark prices from the final minute.
- Economics and financials: rate decisions, economic releases, commodities and metals.
- Politics and elections.
- Climate, entertainment, technology and education.
Sports is the largest shelf by a wide margin. Robinhood also sells combos. A preset combo pays $1 only if every listed outcome is correct. A custom combo mixes winners, spreads, totals and player lines from supported games, up to 10 legs, and trades as a single contract. Custom combos fill completely or not at all, and they need an exchange quote and a counterparty. Robinhood warns that closing a combo early is not always possible.
How do orders work on Robinhood event contracts?
Every order on a Robinhood event contract is a limit order. You pick how it behaves:
- Immediate or cancel. The order takes the best available price now. Whatever does not fill is canceled. Orders sized in dollars always work this way.
- Limit order, good til date. You set your own price. The order rests until it fills or until 3 AM Eastern the next calendar day.
Opening orders are whole contracts. Some markets quote prices in fractions of a cent near the edges, and some allow fractional contracts when you close. All of it happens in the Robinhood mobile app. Robinhood's help center says the website shows the markets without taking orders and Robinhood Legend does not carry them.
What fees does Robinhood charge on prediction markets?
Two fees apply to every trade, according to Robinhood's help center.
- Robinhood's commission. k x price x (1 - price) x contracts. k is 10%, or 5% for Robinhood Gold members. The result is rounded up to the cent and capped at 1 cent a contract.
- The exchange fee. Up to 1 cent a contract, set by the exchange. It applies to opening trades and closing trades.
The formula charges the least on contracts near 1 or 99 cents and the most near 50 cents. Because of the cap, a standard account pays the full cent between about 12 and 88 cents. A Gold account pays the full cent between about 28 and 72 cents.
Robinhood's commission on 100 contracts, beside the taker fee for the same order placed directly on Kalshi:
A worked example of Robinhood fees and payout
You buy 100 Yes contracts at 60 cents on a standard account and hold to settlement.
The same order on Kalshi costs a taker $1.68 (0.07 x 100 x 0.60 x 0.40). A resting limit order on most Kalshi markets costs nothing. The gap grows at the edges. Robinhood's own example prices 100 contracts at 90 cents at a 90 cent commission, or 45 cents with Gold, before the exchange fee. Kalshi charges a taker 63 cents for that order in total.
Sell before settlement and the exchange fee applies again on the closing trade. Add both sides of a round trip before you judge a short-term trade. The full Kalshi schedule is in Kalshi fees explained.
How do payouts and settlement work on Robinhood?
Settlement decides the outcome and converts every contract to cash: $1 for the correct side, $0 for the other. The exchange that lists the contract settles it from the source named in the contract's rules. Robinhood passes the result to your account.
- Timing. Robinhood's market pages say payouts usually arrive within an hour of the event resolving.
- Where the money goes. Proceeds return to your buying power for event contracts.
- Reporting. Fees appear on your annual statement under total fees and commissions.
- Closing only. A market marked position closing only lets you sell what you hold and blocks new positions.
Read the rules on the contract page before you size up. Two exchanges can write different rules for the same headline, and the wording decides who gets paid. How prediction market resolution works walks through the cases that cause disputes.
Can you sell a Robinhood event contract before it settles?
Yes. Go to your positions, choose Close position, pick the number of contracts and submit. The sale fills at the current bid, which can be higher or lower than your cost. Your result is the sale price minus fees, less the purchase price plus fees.
Selling early locks in a gain or cuts a loss without waiting for the event. A contract bought at 40 cents and sold at 65 cents makes 25 cents a contract before fees, whatever happens afterward. Closing orders are placed in contracts. Dollar orders only open positions.
Who can trade prediction markets on Robinhood?
Robinhood's help center lists these requirements:
- You are 18 or older.
- You are a US resident.
- You hold an individual Robinhood brokerage account.
- Robinhood has approved you for a Robinhood Derivatives account. Approval weighs your trading experience, investment profile and state of residence.
You apply inside the app by opening any contract and choosing Yes or No. Robinhood says a 30 day wait can apply after several unapproved applications.
State rules narrow the menu. Robinhood's help center names three states:
- Maryland: no sports event contracts.
- Nevada: no sports event contracts.
- Michigan: no new sports positions.
Robinhood adds that other restrictions may apply and that the app shows the current list. People who work for a contract's source agency, or who hold material non-public information about its outcome, are barred from trading it. For every state and four exchanges at once, use the prediction market access map.
Robinhood vs Kalshi
Robinhood is a broker with a prediction markets tab. Kalshi is an exchange. Some of the contracts you see on Robinhood are Kalshi contracts. Opening a Kalshi account puts you on the exchange itself.
Pick Robinhood if you already keep money there and want a few event contracts beside your stocks and options, with one login and one statement.
Pick Kalshi if you trade often, rest limit orders, buy contracts under 15 cents or above 85 cents, or want to automate. The fee difference at the edges and the API decide it. Court orders limit Kalshi in Nevada, Michigan and Washington, so check your state first.
Plenty of traders keep both. More on the exchange in our Kalshi review, how Kalshi works and is Kalshi legit.
Robinhood vs Polymarket US
Polymarket US is a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse that trades in dollars, with its own order book and its own app. It is a separate business from polymarket.com, the international crypto exchange.
- Fees. Polymarket US charges takers 0.0695 x C x P x (1 - P), or $1.74 on 100 contracts at 50 cents, and pays makers a rebate at a 0.0125 rate. Robinhood charges its commission whether your order rests or takes.
- Combos. Both sell combos of up to 10 legs.
- Access. Polymarket US checks eligibility state by state in its app. Robinhood needs an approved derivatives account.
- Account. Polymarket US is a standalone account funded by card, ACH or wire. Robinhood event contracts draw on settled cash in your Robinhood account.
A patient trader who posts limit orders earns money on Polymarket US and pays a commission on Robinhood. The two Polymarket products and Kalshi are compared in Kalshi vs Polymarket, and every other app is in best prediction market apps.
Where Rivo fits for a Robinhood trader
Rivo is the prediction market terminal for Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini. To be exact: Rivo does not connect to Robinhood accounts and places no orders there. Rivo ingests every market and every trade on those four venues, and Kalshi is one of the exchanges behind Robinhood's contracts. The events you trade on Robinhood are on Rivo's screen with far more around them.
- Who is buying. Live lists trades from traders in profit, each with the trader's win rate and profit.
- Trader records. Every tracked trader has a profile: profit curve, win rate against the odds paid, results by kind of market, and open positions.
- Large trades. See how the money splits between Yes and No on a market before you pick a side.
- Price moves. Market Moves shows sharp moves, favorites flipping and large buyers arriving together.
- Alerts. Follow a trader or watch a market and get the alert on your phone, your computer or Telegram.
- Prices across venues. The market pages show one event on every venue that lists it, with each venue's price and order book.
Add a Kalshi account and Rivo becomes the place you trade. You connect your own Kalshi API key and place orders from one ticket showing the exchange's exact fee before you send. Bots copy a trader or run a signal on paper or live through your own account, inside limits you set per trade and per day. Rivo is not an exchange and never holds your money. The whole terminal costs $9 a week or $15 a month.
Start a bot at the bot builder, or read how the pieces fit in the prediction market terminal.
Frequently asked questions
How do Robinhood prediction markets work?
You buy a Yes or No event contract on a specific outcome for between 1 and 99 cents. A correct contract settles at $1 and an incorrect one settles at $0. Robinhood Derivatives sends your order to a CFTC-regulated exchange, and you can sell the contract at the market price any time before it expires.
What are Robinhood event contracts?
Event contracts are derivatives on a Yes or No outcome, such as a team winning a game or a rate decision. Each one pays $1 if your side is right. Robinhood's help center says they allow speculation in prediction markets and are not bets.
How does a Robinhood event contract payout work?
Every correct contract pays $1 and every incorrect contract pays $0. Buy 100 Yes contracts at 60 cents for $60 and a win pays $100, a $40 gain before commissions and exchange fees. Robinhood's market pages say payouts usually arrive within an hour of the event resolving.
What fees does Robinhood charge on prediction markets?
Robinhood's help center gives the commission as k x price x (1 - price) x contracts, where k is 10%, or 5% with Robinhood Gold. The commission is rounded up to the cent and capped at 1 cent a contract. The exchange adds its own fee of up to 1 cent a contract on opening and closing trades.
Is Robinhood using Kalshi?
Kalshi is one of four exchanges Robinhood names. Robinhood Derivatives offers event contracts through KalshiEX, ForecastEx, Rothera Exchange and Clearing and North American Derivatives Exchange. Rothera is owned by a joint venture managed by Robinhood and Susquehanna.
Is Kalshi or Robinhood better for prediction markets?
Kalshi is better for active traders: resting orders pay no fee on most markets, the fee at 10 or 90 cents is lower, and Kalshi has a public API with a demo exchange. Robinhood is better for people who already hold a Robinhood account and want event contracts beside their stocks.
Can I sell a Robinhood event contract before it settles?
Yes. Open the position in the app, choose Close position and pick the number of contracts. The sale fills at the current market price, which can be above or below what you paid. Closing orders are placed in contracts, not dollars.
Who can trade prediction markets on Robinhood?
US residents 18 or older with an individual Robinhood brokerage account and an approved Robinhood Derivatives account. Robinhood's help center says sports event contracts are closed to Maryland and Nevada, Michigan customers cannot open new sports positions, and other state restrictions may apply.
Can I trade Robinhood prediction markets on a computer?
No. Robinhood's help center says prediction markets trade in the Robinhood mobile app only. The website shows the markets and their prices but takes no orders, and Robinhood Legend does not carry them.
Does Rivo work with Robinhood?
Rivo does not connect to Robinhood accounts. Rivo is the prediction market terminal for Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini. It shows every market and every trade on those four venues, so you can research an event there and trade it through your own Kalshi account.