How to read Kalshi odds
A Kalshi price is the odds. Every contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so a Yes price of 36 cents means the market puts the chance at 36%. Buy at 36 cents, win, and you collect $1 for a 64 cent profit. Lose and you are out the 36 cents.
The boards above show the Kalshi price for each outcome as a percentage, the same price as American odds, and the Polymarket price for the same outcome beside it. Rivo reads every venue every five minutes and prints the time of the read under the title.
- Kalshi column: the price to buy Yes on Kalshi right now, shown as the implied chance.
- American: the same Kalshi price written the way a sportsbook writes it.
- Polymarket column: what the same outcome costs on polymarket.com.
- 24 hours: how many points the outcome moved in a day, from Rivo's own hourly record.
Kalshi odds to American odds
The math takes one step. A favorite priced above 50 cents converts to a minus number: price divided by one minus price, times 100. An underdog priced under 50 cents converts to a plus number: one minus price, divided by price, times 100. A 20 cent contract is +400. An 80 cent contract is -400.
| Price of Yes | Implied chance | American odds | $100 pays if it wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 cents | 5% | +1900 | $2000.00 |
| 10 cents | 10% | +900 | $1000.00 |
| 20 cents | 20% | +400 | $500.00 |
| 25 cents | 25% | +300 | $400.00 |
| 33 cents | 33% | +203 | $303.03 |
| 40 cents | 40% | +150 | $250.00 |
| 50 cents | 50% | −100 | $200.00 |
| 60 cents | 60% | −150 | $166.67 |
| 67 cents | 67% | −203 | $149.25 |
| 75 cents | 75% | −300 | $133.33 |
| 80 cents | 80% | −400 | $125.00 |
| 90 cents | 90% | −900 | $111.11 |
| 95 cents | 95% | −1900 | $105.26 |
The last column is the reason traders like low prices: $100 at 10 cents buys 1,000 contracts and pays $1,000. The market wins that bet one time in ten, which is exactly what the price says. Kalshi adds a trading fee on top, worked through at every price in Kalshi fees explained.
What Kalshi lists
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange and the widest board in US prediction markets. It lists games, player props, season futures and combos across the NFL, college football, MLB, NBA, NHL, WNBA, soccer, tennis and UFC, alongside politics, the Fed, inflation, crypto prices, weather and entertainment.
| Kind of market | What trades on Kalshi | Where to see it |
|---|---|---|
| Season futures | Super Bowl, NBA title, World Series, Stanley Cup, college football champion | The boards above |
| Single games | Winner, spread and total for each game, live through the final whistle | The Rivo terminal |
| Politics | Control of the House and Senate, governor and mayor races | The boards above |
| Economics | Fed rate decisions, inflation prints, jobs numbers | The boards above |
| Crypto | Year-end price ranges and markets that reopen every 15 minutes | The Rivo terminal |
| Parlays | Combos built from legs on the same exchange | The Rivo terminal |
The boards on this page cover the markets with the most money in them. The terminal carries all of Kalshi: every open market, searchable, with the trades printing as they happen.
Why Kalshi odds differ from Polymarket
Two exchanges price the same event with two separate order books and two separate crowds. A gap of a point or two is normal. A bigger gap usually has one of three causes.
- Different rules. Each exchange writes its own contract, deadline and resolution source. Two markets with the same headline can settle differently in an edge case, and the price reflects that.
- Different traders. Kalshi serves US residents trading dollars. polymarket.com serves traders outside the US trading crypto. News reaches the two crowds at different speeds.
- Thin books. On a long shot with little resting money, one order moves the price several points until someone trades against it.
Each market's own page shows every venue's order book and marks the cheapest place to buy each outcome. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two exchanges on fees, rules and access, and prediction market arbitrage works through when a gap beats the fees.
Why Kalshi odds differ from a sportsbook line
A sportsbook sets a line and builds its margin into both sides. Kalshi runs an order book: traders set the price against each other and the exchange charges a visible fee per trade. That changes three things for a bettor.
- You can sell. A Kalshi position trades until the market closes. Take the profit at halftime or cut the loss, at the price on the screen.
- You can set your own price. A resting limit order waits for the market to come to you, and it pays a lower fee than taking the price on the screen, or no fee at all.
- The price is the probability. No conversion from a line with the margin baked in. 62 cents means 62%.
See who is moving Kalshi odds
A price tells you where the market stands. The trades tell you why. Rivo is the prediction market terminal for Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini. It ingests every market and every trade, so you see what stands behind a Kalshi price before you take it.
- Large trades as they print on the Kalshi whale tracker, with the trader, the side and the entry price.
- Trader records on the Kalshi leaderboard: profit, win rate and the kind of market each trader is best at.
- Price alerts when a market crosses your level or jumps inside the hour, through price alerts.
- Bots that copy a trader, run a signal or watch one market, built without code in the Kalshi bot builder.
- One order ticket that walks the live Kalshi book and shows your fill, the fee and the payout before you send.
The whole terminal is one subscription: $9 a week or $15 a month.
Frequently asked questions
What do Kalshi odds mean?
A Kalshi price is the market's chance of the outcome. A contract pays $1 if the outcome happens, so a Yes price of 36 cents means a 36% chance. You pay 36 cents and collect $1 if you are right.
How do I convert Kalshi odds to American odds?
Above 50 cents, divide the price by one minus the price and multiply by 100 for a minus number: 80 cents is -400. Under 50 cents, divide one minus the price by the price and multiply by 100 for a plus number: 20 cents is +400.
Does Kalshi have NFL and NBA odds?
Yes. Kalshi lists game winners, spreads, totals, player props and season futures for the NFL and NBA, along with college football, MLB, NHL, WNBA, soccer, tennis and UFC. Court orders switch sports off in some states, so check yours first.
Are Kalshi odds accurate?
Kalshi prices come from traders risking their own money against each other on a regulated exchange, and a price that is wrong pays whoever corrects it. Busy markets with deep order books track the true chance closely. Thin long shots move several points on one order.
Why are Kalshi odds different from Polymarket odds?
Each exchange has its own order book, its own traders and its own contract rules. A gap of a point or two is normal. Larger gaps come from different resolution rules, news reaching one crowd first, or a thin book.
Why are Kalshi odds different from sportsbook odds?
A sportsbook sets the line and builds its margin into both sides. On Kalshi traders set the price against each other and the exchange charges a separate fee, so the price reads directly as a probability.
How often do the odds on this page update?
Rivo reads every venue's prices every five minutes and rebuilds the page at the same pace. The time of the last read is printed under the title.
Can I trade Kalshi odds through Rivo?
Yes. Connect your own Kalshi account and trade from Rivo's order ticket, which shows the live book, the fee and your fill before you send. Rivo never holds your funds. The terminal costs $9 a week or $15 a month.