Polymarket Analytics

Our take: the price on a Polymarket market is the least interesting number on the page. Everyone sees it. The edge is in what sits behind it: which wallets bought, what they paid, how often those wallets are right in this kind of market, and whether the money is still coming. Polymarket publishes all of it, one trade at a time. Rivo ingests every market and every trade and turns that record into answers you can act on, in the same terminal you trade from.

What is Polymarket analytics?

Every trade on polymarket.com is public and names a wallet. Analytics is the work of turning millions of those trades into four answers.

1. Who is buying? The wallets behind the money on a market, by side.
2. How good are they? Each wallet's settled record: profit, win rate against the price paid, and where the profit comes from.
3. Where is the money going? Which markets and which sides are taking large buys now.
4. What moved? Prices that jumped, favorites that flipped, and markets where several whales bought the same side together.

A chart of the price answers none of these. A Polymarket tracker answers the first. A scanner answers the last two. Rivo answers all four and puts the order ticket beside them.

What do the top Polymarket traders look like right now?

These figures come from the 200 most profitable Polymarket wallets on Rivo's record, read as this page rendered. Profit counts settled markets only.

Open any name for the full record. The whole ranking, sortable by win rate, return and money traded, is on the Polymarket leaderboard.

Every Polymarket market and every trade

Rivo reads the live Polymarket trade feed and the full market catalog. Search finds any market by name, including each candidate, bracket or game line inside an event. The market list shows both sides' odds and the last hour's volume from Rivo's own record of trades, so a market that is trading now stands out from one that only looks big.

• One row per market as you would name it. An election with 40 candidates is one market that opens into 40 contracts, not 40 rows.
• Five categories and 39 kinds of market. Sports, politics, crypto, macro and culture, then NFL, NBA, elections, rate decisions and the rest. Each venue's own labels map onto one list, so a filter means the same thing everywhere.
• Repeating markets keep their past. A Bitcoin up or down market that reopens every 15 minutes shows its last 15 results, the current streak, and how often a side won from the price and point in time it sits at now.

Polymarket wallet records

A wallet profile is the core of Polymarket analytics. Rivo tracks every wallet on Polymarket's own leaderboards plus the wallets behind large trades, scores each trade when its market settles, and builds the record from those outcomes.

• Profit curve. Real profit over time from settled markets.
• Win rate against the odds paid. How often the wallet won in each price band, next to the price it paid.
• Results by bet size. Whether the wallet's large bets are its good bets.
• Categories. The record split by category and kind of market, with the wallet's strongest shown as Best at.
• Most traded markets and biggest wins. Each with the entry price in cents.
• Monthly profit and streaks. Consistency month by month.
• Weekday by hour heatmap and 90 day activity. When the wallet trades and whether it still does.
• Open and recent positions. Every buy and sell of a market and side folded into one row with entry price, exit price and status. In the terminal an open position shows what it trades at now.
• Copy simulator. What copying the wallet at $25, $100 or $250 a trade returned over 7, 30 or 90 days.

Look up any address in the Polymarket wallet tracker. The methodology page explains how each figure is computed.

Polymarket leaderboards by period and by kind of market

"Who is the best trader on Polymarket" has no single answer. The best NFL trader this week and the best politics trader of all time are different wallets, and you want to know both.

• The Polymarket leaderboard ranks tracked wallets by profit, win rate, return or money traded.
• Period boards rank today, this week, this month and all time from Rivo's own record of bets placed in that window.
• Scope boards rank one category or one kind of market, such as NBA or crypto.
• The combined leaderboard and top traders put Polymarket wallets beside Kalshi traders.

In the terminal, the All traders window searches every tracked trader active in the last 30 days by name, handle or address, ranks by any column, and re-ranks the whole list by the record in one kind of market.

Whale flow on every Polymarket market

Open a market in the terminal and the first thing you see is a head to head: the two sides, their prices, and one bar for how the identified money splits between them. Under it:

• Who bought each side. One line per trader: what they bought, the price they paid, what they sold at, and their record in this kind of market.
• The read. A headline and a sentence on which side has more behind it, with a price track.
• Chart and order book side by side, then positions and the market's rules.

Money by side is the number most traders want. A market at 60 cents with winning wallets stacked on No is a different market from one at 60 cents with the same wallets on Yes. The Polymarket whale tracker and Polymarket smart money pages go deeper on reading that flow.

Live trades and Market Moves in the terminal

The terminal's middle list is the scanner. Two of its tabs do the scanning:

• Live shows what traders in profit are buying, trade by trade, as it happens. Every row carries the trader's win rate and profit, so you judge the trade and the trader in one glance.
• Market Moves shows what just changed: a sharp price move, a favorite that flipped, or several whales buying the same side together.

Filters sit in one bar above both: category, venue, trade size, odds and entry price, plus a search box that matches market names. Save a filter set and the terminal opens on it next time. The list holds still while you read it, with new rows waiting behind a bar at the top, so the trade you were about to click does not slide away.

Polymarket prices next to every other venue

A Polymarket price means more beside the same question on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini. The market pages show one market on every venue that lists it: each outcome's live ask per venue with the lowest marked, the order book on each venue, whale trades, the biggest positions, and what $1,000 buys on each venue after that venue's own fee. Inside the terminal the same view updates live and opens the right venue's order ticket on the contract.

Alerts on wallets and on prices

Analytics you have to sit and watch is a part-time job. Alerts do the watching.

• Trader alerts. Follow a wallet and get every new position in the app, as a notification on your phone or computer, and on Telegram. Filter by entry price, size and kind of market. See alerts.
• Market alerts. Turn on the bell for a market: large trades, up to four price levels, a move of 5, 10 or 15 points inside an hour, an activity surge and the resolution. See price alerts.
• Bots. Turn a filter into a signal bot that records every matching trade on paper at your sizing.

Polymarket data in code

Everything in the terminal is behind one API key. The REST API reads markets, trades, trader records and alerts. Live event streams push trades as they happen, and outbound webhooks deliver alerts to your own endpoint with a signed payload. The MCP server gives Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor the same data as tools. Keys carry read, write or trade scopes. The Polymarket API guide covers Polymarket's own endpoints and where Rivo's add to them.

Which question does each part of Rivo answer?

How to read a Polymarket wallet

Ten minutes on one profile tells you more than an hour of scrolling trades. This is the order we read it in.

1. Count the settled trades. Under 20 the record is noise. Over 50 it starts to mean something. Over 200 you can trust the splits.
2. Read the profit curve for its shape. A steady climb is a process. A flat line with one vertical jump is one bet. Check the biggest wins: if one market paid most of the total, treat the wallet as untested.
3. Read win rate next to price. The break-even win rate on a bet is its price. A 40 cent bet breaks even at 40%. A wallet winning 48% at 40 cents has an eight point edge. A wallet winning 80% at 85 cents is losing five points a bet.
4. Check results by bet size. You want profit rising with size. A wallet that makes money on $500 bets and gives it back on $20,000 bets is sizing on emotion.
5. Find the category. Most profitable wallets are specialists. The Best at line names the kind of market. Outside it, treat the wallet as average.
6. Look at the side split and position behaviour. A wallet that buys both sides of markets is making markets or hedging, and its single trades carry less of a view. A wallet that opens and holds to settlement is stating an opinion.
7. Check that it is still trading. The 90 day activity chart and the monthly profit show whether the record is current.
8. Run the simulator at your stake. Compare the 7 day and 90 day windows. Good in both is skill. Good in one is a streak.

Keep this table in your head when you read any win rate. A 35% win rate is excellent at 25 cents and a disaster at 60. Once a wallet passes the read, the next step is in Polymarket copy trading.

How to read Polymarket volume

Volume is the most quoted Polymarket number and the easiest to misread.

• Total volume is history. A market with $50 million traded over a year can be dead today. The last hour tells you whether you can get filled now.
• Volume is not direction. Every trade has a buyer and a seller. Money by side, split among identified wallets, tells you who is pressing.
• One sweep is one trader. A single order that fills against 12 resting orders prints 12 trades. Count wallets, not prints.
• Size against the book. A $10,000 buy means little on a deep election market and a lot on a thin one. The order book beside the chart shows which you are looking at.
• Late money is cheap information. A large buy at 95 cents says less than a small buy at 30. Filter by entry price to keep the trades with a view in them.

Kalshi and Polymarket US and Gemini in the same terminal

Rivo covers four venues with the same lists, filters, alerts and order ticket: Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini Predictions. Polymarket and Kalshi show who is trading, Polymarket through public wallets and Kalshi through the traders it shows by name. Polymarket US and Gemini name no traders, so their trades appear without one. Each venue stays its own account with its own balance, and Rivo never moves an order from one venue to another. The prediction market terminal page covers the whole product, and Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two largest venues.

What does Rivo cost?

$9 a week or $15 a month. Both plans include everything on this page: every market and trade, wallet records, leaderboards, Live and Market Moves, alerts, bots, connected trading, portfolio, the REST API and the MCP server. Venue trading fees are separate and go to the venue.

Frequently asked questions