Stats as of
fireseason4626
+$1.7K
- Tracked Trades
- 665
- First Seen
- Jan 29, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 2, 2026
- Best In Parlays
- 2% won · 42 settled · +$1.7K
fireseason4626 is a Kalshi trader with 665 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 2 wins and 47 losses on settled markets, $1.7K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026B06901C6C2B-9DCA7074E8F on Oct 2.
- Win rate
- 4%
- Return on settled
- +333%
- Money traded
- $22.3K
- Typical trade
- $10
- Avg entry
- 1¢
- Kalshi rank
- #2,663
Profit over time
+$2.0K-$143
Jan 29Oct 2
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢6422%2%+1 pts
20 to 40¢1227%0%-27 pts
40 to 60¢248%100%+53 pts
60 to 80¢373%
Over 80¢695%0%-95 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $91670%-$96
$9 to $1016613%+$2.0K
$10 to $131660%-$159
$13 to $3.5K1660%-$96
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Parlays6452%+$1.7K
Weather8+$0
NBA50%-$18
College basketball40%-$9
Commodities20%-$19
US politics1100%+$8
Side taken
Yes 98%2% No
If you had copied fireseason4626
$100 per trade, last 90 days
+$18227
Profit
on $4500 staked
1-44
Record
2% win rate
+405%
Return
406 still open
+$18.2K-$800
Jul 13Sep 28
-$3.1K
Max drawdown
15% below peak
5.9×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
5.14×
Profit factor
$22.6K won vs $4.4K lost
-0.7 pts
Edge vs implied
2% won at 3¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 31
- Deepest drawdown
- 31 trades
By category
sports43 settled+429%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Open positions
400 open positions worth $4.3K
The markets fireseason4626 is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026B06901C6C2B-9DCA7074E8F
Oct 2
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20266314ADB300D-660B9CB04FC
Oct 2
yes Jaylen Warren: 40+,yes Utah,yes Edmonton,yes Florida,yes Minnesota,yes Seattle,yes New York R,yes Clayton Keller: 1+,yes Brandon Montour: 1+
Oct 2
Biggest wins
- 1+$2.1Kyes Target Price: $759.39,no Target Price: $83,450.91,yes Target Price: $6.65074,yes Target Price: $0.0935362,yes Target Price: $2,670.11,no Target Price: $4,178.93,yes Target Price: $86.2077,yes New York Y,yes San Diego,yes Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1+,yes Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1+,yes Target Price: $3.01786,no Target Price: $5.0281,yes Vegas,no Target Price: $61.373,yes Target Price: $118.7922,yes New York,yes Target Price: $89.23,yes Target Price: $1.4905,no Target Price: $1,424.9411$9 on Yes at 0¢, Sep 30
- 2+$8Will the government be shut down on January 31?$9 on Yes at 55¢, Jan 29
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S202641AF8A1699F-9198365F26D1+$0
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20266314ADB300D-660B9CB04FC1+$0
yes Tampa Bay,yes Cleveland,yes Chicago C,yes Chicago WS,yes Seattle,yes San Diego,yes Los Angeles D,yes Arizona St.,yes Brown,yes Delaware,yes Ole Miss,yes Vanderbilt0¢2+$0
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026B06901C6C2B-9DCA7074E8F1+$0
yes Milwaukee,yes Pittsburgh,yes Chicago C,yes New York M,yes Cleveland,yes St. Louis,yes Seattle,yes Los Angeles D,yes Marist,yes San Jose St.,yes Michigan St.1¢2+$0
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 5Oct 2
Profit by month
Jan 2026-$20
Aug 2026-$28
Sep 2026+$1.9K
Oct 2026-$229
Kalshi leaderboards
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