Stats as of
guess.not
-$1.4K
- Tracked Trades
- 980
- First Seen
- Jan 5, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 5, 2026
- Best In Parlays
- 24% won · 131 settled · +$378
guess.not is a Kalshi trader with 980 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 127 wins and 146 losses on settled markets, -$1.4K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S202628F9F17C166-CC0325FA678 on Oct 5.
- Win rate
- 47%
- Return on settled
- -4%
- Money traded
- $66.7K
- Typical trade
- $6
- Avg entry
- 19¢
- Kalshi rank
- #5,430
Profit over time
+$1.6K-$3.1K
Jan 5Oct 5
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢3967%8%+1 pts
20 to 40¢15329%19%-9 pts
40 to 60¢16349%52%+3 pts
60 to 80¢11169%66%-3 pts
Over 80¢15791%94%+3 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $224525%-$9
$2 to $624534%-$68
$6 to $2924561%+$406
$29 to $5.1K24561%-$1.7K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Parlays74824%+$378
Tennis13070%-$308
Soccer2783%-$1.6K
Baseball3173%-$20
NFL1325%+$91
Cricket2100%+$39
Side taken
Yes 90%10% No
If you had copied guess.not
$100 per trade, last 90 days
-$843
Profit
on $25500 staked
122-133
Record
48% win rate
-3%
Return
607 still open
+$0-$2.5K
Jul 20Oct 5
-$3.8K
Max drawdown
662% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.94×
Profit factor
$12.5K won vs $13.3K lost
+2.0 pts
Edge vs implied
48% won at 46¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 11
- Deepest drawdown
- 109 trades
By category
sports122 settled+10%
other133 settled-15%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Open positions
545 open positions worth $15.9K
The markets guess.not is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S202628F9F17C166-CC0325FA678
Oct 5
yes Carlos Alcaraz,yes Diogo Marques,yes Lenny Petit,yes Javier Munoz Fuster,yes Kennedy Gibbs,yes Ailish Garcia Fernandez,yes Georgina Groth,yes Galena Krastenova,yes Lucie Petruzelova,yes Diana-Ioana Simionescu,yes Noma Noha Akugue,yes Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Oct 5
yes Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo,yes Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo,yes Carlos Alcaraz,yes Kyrian Jacquet,yes Chetanna Amadike,yes Arthur Laborde,yes Vasco Leote Prata,yes Diogo Marques,yes Mattia Nannelli,yes Lenny Petit,yes Javier Munoz Fuster,yes Ailish Garcia Fernandez,yes Galena Krastenova,yes Cristina PESCUCCI,yes Charlotte Pikkaart,yes Leticia Romanova,yes Diana-Ioana Simionescu,yes Aliaksandra Sasnovich,yes Elise Mertens,yes Coco Gauff,yes Nikola Bartunkova,yes Mirra Andreeva
Oct 5
Biggest wins
- 1+$1.5KKXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S20260F4914CA91D-F256184E901$3.4K on Yes at 69¢, Sep 4
- 2+$1.1KKXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S202626F98153FFE-7F7816F38A6$1.1K on Yes at 49¢, Sep 4
- 3+$986KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026655CB8E9840-24BC57C0C17$1.2K on Yes at 54¢, Sep 2
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026DFCEC2D9737-FDD18D5D90C52¢20%-$2.8K
Germany vs Paraguay Winner?74¢20%-$1.9K
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S20260F4914CA91D-F256184E90169¢2100%+$1.5K
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026D8A6A6E3C09-0D856CC53C283¢1100%+$450
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026ABD5CE1970F-E793F46C35572¢1100%+$834
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 8Oct 5
Profit by month
Jan 2026+$4
Jun 2026-$2.1K
Jul 2026-$118
Aug 2026-$531
Sep 2026+$827
Oct 2026+$476
Kalshi leaderboards
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