Stats as of
itslightning
+$406
- Tracked Trades
- 404
- First Seen
- Aug 10, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 13, 2026
- Best In Baseball
- 73% won · 59 settled · +$1.3K
itslightning is a Kalshi trader with 404 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 154 wins and 152 losses on settled markets, $406 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20266FD9FC26B3D-36837C1C7C8 on Oct 13.
- Win rate
- 50%
- Return on settled
- +1%
- Money traded
- $42.9K
- Typical trade
- $44
- Avg entry
- 22¢
- Kalshi rank
- #3,848
Profit over time
+$2.0K-$2.0K
Aug 10Oct 13
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢959%14%+6 pts
20 to 40¢10032%34%+2 pts
40 to 60¢10749%54%+5 pts
60 to 80¢7968%64%-4 pts
Over 80¢2393%100%+7 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $1510154%+$208
$15 to $4410143%-$494
$44 to $9610141%+$581
$96 to $3.1K10160%+$111
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Parlays15423%-$1.0K
MMA12148%-$1.1K
NFL1646%-$55
Baseball6273%+$1.3K
College football3250%+$248
Tennis1794%+$735
Side taken
Yes 95%5% No
If you had copied itslightning
$100 per trade, last 90 days
+$2922
Profit
on $30600 staked
154-152
Record
50% win rate
+10%
Return
88 still open
+$2.9K-$2.5K
Aug 10Oct 12
-$3.6K
Max drawdown
3203% below peak
0.8×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.19×
Profit factor
$18.1K won vs $15.2K lost
+1.6 pts
Edge vs implied
50% won at 49¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 16
- Deepest drawdown
- 106 trades
By category
sports303 settled+10%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Open positions
86 open positions worth $6.4K
The markets itslightning is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20266FD9FC26B3D-36837C1C7C8
Oct 13
Buffalo wins
Oct 13
yes James Cook III: 2+,yes Kyren Williams: 2+
Oct 12
Biggest wins
- 1+$1.0KNew England vs Seattle Pro Football game: Seattle wins?$1.7K on Yes at 62¢, Sep 10
- 2+$785yes Cincinnati,yes Denver,yes Detroit,yes Houston,yes Minnesota,yes Jacksonville$94 on Yes at 11¢, Oct 11
- 3+$561Will Texas win the Ohio St. vs Texas college football game?$568 on Yes at 50¢, Sep 13
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
yes Boston,yes Cleveland40¢2+$0
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20266FD9FC26B3D-36837C1C7C81+$0
yes Cleveland,yes Tampa Bay,yes Kansas City,yes Los Angeles D18¢2+$0
New England vs Seattle Pro Football game: Seattle wins?62¢1100%+$1.0K
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026F0446575471-5587C108AEE1+$0
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 16Oct 13
Profit by month
Aug 2026-$976
Sep 2026-$926
Oct 2026+$2.3K
Kalshi leaderboards
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