rivomarkets

Stats as of

donotthinktwice

0x819f9aa2e4da899e185762e03690415ea758f3e7

+$9.8K
Tracked Trades
1,002
First Seen
Aug 6, 2026
Last Trade
Oct 14, 2026
Best In Bitcoin
22% won · 171 settled · +$5.6K

donotthinktwice is a Polymarket trader with 1,002 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 306 wins and 498 losses on settled markets, $9.8K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? on Oct 14.

Win rate
38%
Return on settled
+29%
Money traded
$39.6K
Typical trade
$9
Avg entry
26¢
Polymarket rank
#3,059

Profit over time

+$12.3K-$48
Aug 6Aug 28

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢4108%15%+7 pts
20 to 40¢18828%14%-14 pts
40 to 60¢15949%52%+3 pts
60 to 80¢12069%90%+21 pts
Over 80¢12589%97%+8 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $325124%+$379
$3 to $925130%+$874
$9 to $3325042%+$3.0K
$33 to $88025053%+$5.6K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
US elections42754%+$3.6K
Commodities18100%+$1.2K
Bitcoin17321%+$5.6K
Tech and AI5635%-$93
Golf4355%+$336
Motorsport6446%+$212

Side taken

Yes 65%35% No

If you had copied donotthinktwice

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$53479
Profit
on $80400 staked
306-498
Record
38% win rate
+67%
Return
195 still open
Profit over time804 settled trades
+$58.8K+$0
Aug 3Oct 12
-$20.2K
Max drawdown
27% below peak
2.6×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
2.07×
Profit factor
$103.3K won vs $49.8K lost
+3.6 pts
Edge vs implied
38% won at 34¢ avg
Longest losing streak
35
Deepest drawdown
305 trades

By category

crypto270 settled+188%
sports107 settled+21%
politics345 settled+13%
finance28 settled-40%
culture54 settled-55%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

42 open positions worth $5.7K

The markets donotthinktwice is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what donotthinktwice is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
Aug 28
No98¢$8+$0
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?
Aug 28, 33 fills
Yes7¢$509-$509
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?
Aug 28, 44 fills
Yes8¢$1.4K-$1.4K
See every position across 132 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?
    $279 on Yes at 4¢, Aug 19
    +$6.4K
  2. 2
    Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
    $1.5K on No at 37¢, Aug 11
    +$2.5K
  3. 3
    Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
    $2.3K on No at 54¢, Aug 17
    +$2.0K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?84¢18100%+$1.2K
Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?71¢41+$0
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?60¢2560%+$861
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?53¢4495%+$1.8K
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?43¢8025%-$1.2K

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jul 17Oct 14

Profit by month

Aug 2026+$9.8K

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