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Stats as of
Arnolfini
arnolfini
+$3.1K
- Tracked Trades
- 89
- First Seen
- Jun 14, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 4, 2026
Arnolfini is a Kalshi trader with 89 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 46 wins and 27 losses on settled markets, $3.1K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? on Oct 4.
- Win rate
- 63%
- Return on settled
- +78%
- Money traded
- $7.9K
- Typical trade
- $38
- Avg entry
- 40¢
- Kalshi rank
- #4,533
Profit over time
+$3.1K-$1.4K
Jun 14Oct 4
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢318%100%+82 pts
20 to 40¢3830%100%+70 pts
40 to 60¢2353%0%-53 pts
60 to 80¢2575%50%-25 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $42370%+$24
$5 to $382267%+$363
$38 to $972263%+$1.1K
$97 to $9252246%+$1.6K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
World politics8269%+$3.6K
MMA70%-$475
Side taken
Yes 88%12% No
If you had copied Arnolfini
$100 per trade, last 90 days
+$8007
Profit
on $6700 staked
46-21
Record
69% win rate
+120%
Return
+$8.0K+$0
Sep 7Sep 28
-$1.4K
Max drawdown
never got above break-even
5.7×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
4.81×
Profit factor
$10.1K won vs $2.1K lost
+24.4 pts
Edge vs implied
69% won at 44¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 14
- Deepest drawdown
- 14 trades
By category
politics67 settled+120%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Oct 4, 15 fills
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Oct 4, 43 fills
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Oct 4, 3 fills
Biggest wins
- 1+$4.2KWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.8K on Yes at 30¢, Oct 4
- 2+$582Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$526 on Yes at 47¢, Oct 4
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?30¢43100%+$4.2K
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?56¢170%-$970
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?53¢2261%+$384
Will Alex Pereira win the Pereira vs Gane professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 14, 2026?52¢70%-$475
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 7Oct 4
Profit by month
Jun 2026-$475
Sep 2026-$26
Oct 2026+$3.6K
Kalshi leaderboards
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