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Stats as of

cycloid

+$174.1K
Tracked Trades
69,697
First Seen
Aug 19, 2026
Last Trade
Nov 4, 2026
Best In US elections
81% won · 1,102 settled · +$72.1K

Market maker

Market makers buy both sides of the same markets and earn the spread between them. Each of their trades is half of a hedge, not a pick, so copying one side does not copy how they make money.

Active politics traders who bet one side: Scottaholic, similar.clownfish7790, crisp4life

cycloid is a Kalshi trader with 69,697 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 4,021 wins and 2,795 losses on settled markets, $174.1K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will Democratic win the House race for NY-21? on Nov 4.

Win rate
59%
Return on settled
+15%
Money traded
$8.8M
Typical trade
$14.47
Avg entry
57¢
Kalshi rank
#15

Profit over time

+$180.8K-$1.1K
Aug 19Nov 4

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢936410%12%+2 pts
20 to 40¢1271530%25%-5 pts
40 to 60¢2444150%57%+6 pts
60 to 80¢1672169%70%+2 pts
Over 80¢645689%91%+2 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $51742549%-$160.66
$5 to $141742453%+$246.68
$14 to $481742464%+$1.6K
$48 to $46K1742472%+$172.4K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Soccer2717062%-$17.5K
NBA916153%-$19.1K
Baseball656279%+$2.2K
College football476262%+$67.9K
Fed and rates141327%+$31.8K
NFL524745%+$2.3K

Side taken

Yes 75%25% No

If you had copied cycloid

$100 per bet, last 90 days

-$4,227.42
Profit
on $165,000.00 staked
884-766
Record
54% win rate
-3%
Return
61 still open
Profit over time1650 settled trades
+$0.00-$5.2K
Aug 17Nov 2
-$7.9K
Max drawdown
786% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.94×
Profit factor
$72.4K won vs $76.6K lost
-1.0 pts
Edge vs implied
54% won at 55¢ avg
Longest losing streak
10
Deepest drawdown
1083 trades

By category

sports867 settled-1%
other745 settled-3%
politics30 settled-20%
culture8 settled-59%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

47 open positions worth $29.3K

The markets cycloid is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what cycloid is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will Democratic win the House race for NY-21?
Nov 4
Sold Nosold 85¢$134.02Exited
Will Democratic win the House race for CO-3?
Nov 4, 3 fills
Sold Yessold 51¢$15.11Exited
Will Democratic win the House race for CO-3?
Nov 4, 55 fills
Sold Nosold 33¢$282.45Exited
See every position across 9,465 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?
    $68.7K on Yes at 63¢, Sep 14
    +$40.1K
  2. 2
    Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?
    $75.1K on No at 76¢, Sep 12
    +$23.3K
  3. 3
    Louisiana wins
    $29.5K on No at 59¢, Oct 10
    +$20.5K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?68¢53612%+$19.6K
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?74¢34683%+$21.6K
Over 8.5 runs scored57¢85355%-$664.84
Bayern Munich wins21¢5270%-$4.97
Will over 0.5 goals be scored?3¢26433%+$11.64

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 7Nov 4

Profit by month

Aug 2026+$23.3K
Sep 2026+$64.5K
Oct 2026+$92.3K
Nov 2026-$6.1K

Kalshi leaderboards

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