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Stats as of
fan.thumb
+$755
- Tracked Trades
- 358
- First Seen
- Mar 6, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 22, 2026
- Best In Parlays
- 9% won · 246 settled · +$973
fan.thumb is a Kalshi trader with 358 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 49 wins and 272 losses on settled markets, $755 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: yes Phoenix,yes Nikola Jokić: 20+,yes Evan Mobley: 6+,no Sacramento wins by over 3.5 points,no Cleveland wins by over 9.5 points,no Denver wins by over 4.5 points,no Over 251.5 points on Oct 22.
- Win rate
- 15%
- Return on settled
- +8%
- Money traded
- $14.2K
- Typical trade
- $24
- Avg entry
- 9¢
- Kalshi rank
- #3,657
Profit over time
+$755-$3.9K
Mar 6Oct 22
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢2529%8%-1 pts
20 to 40¢4727%14%-13 pts
40 to 60¢3947%49%+2 pts
60 to 80¢1366%100%+34 pts
Over 80¢790%100%+10 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $99017%-$218
$9 to $249018%-$498
$24 to $428912%+$485
$42 to $2.0K8915%+$985
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Parlays2649%+$973
Bitcoin3629%-$74
Esports3252%+$76
NBA729%-$177
Hockey3100%+$108
Tennis620%-$41
Side taken
Yes 86%14% No
If you had copied fan.thumb
$100 per trade, last 90 days
+$7722
Profit
on $14400 staked
25-119
Record
17% win rate
+54%
Return
+$7.7K-$728
Aug 10Oct 19
-$3.1K
Max drawdown
130% below peak
2.5×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.65×
Profit factor
$19.6K won vs $11.9K lost
+4.6 pts
Edge vs implied
17% won at 13¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 29
- Deepest drawdown
- 37 trades
By category
sports117 settled+70%
crypto27 settled-18%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
yes Phoenix,yes Nikola Jokić: 20+,yes Evan Mobley: 6+,no Sacramento wins by over 3.5 points,no Cleveland wins by over 9.5 points,no Denver wins by over 4.5 points,no Over 251.5 points
Oct 22
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026OVESQBBIBDNY5RT4-2SMO2YO2X
Oct 22
yes Deni Avdija: 4+,yes Luka Dončić: 25+,yes Devin Booker: 20+,yes Walker Kessler: 8+,no Golden State wins by over 8.5 points,no Phoenix wins by over 10.5 points,no Sacramento wins by over 11.5 points,yes Over 221.5 points,no Over 253.5 points,no Over 242.5 points
Oct 22
Biggest wins
- 1+$1.9Kyes Anthony Edwards: 2+,yes Josh Giddey: 6+,yes LaMelo Ball: 6+,yes Toronto,yes Jalen Johnson: 15+,yes Paolo Banchero: 15+,yes Michael Porter Jr.: 15+,yes Pascal Siakam: 15+,yes Keyonte George: 15+,no Miami wins by over 11.5 points,no Over 251.5 points,yes Over 221.5 points,no Over 270.5 points,no Over 9.5 goals scored,no Over 9.5 goals scored,yes Aston Villa,yes Real Madrid,no Over 5.5 goals scored,no Over 5.5 goals scored$70 on Yes at 4¢, Oct 21
- 2+$1.5Kyes Tyrese Haliburton: 6+,yes Trae Young: 8+,yes LaMelo Ball: 6+,yes Anthony Davis: 1+,yes Anthony Davis: 30+,yes Jalen Johnson: 10+,yes Paolo Banchero: 15+,yes Pascal Siakam: 15+,yes Anthony Edwards: 20+,no Chicago wins by over 7.5 points,no Golden State wins by over 10.5 points,no Milwaukee wins by over 6.5 points,yes Over 215.5 points,no Over 270.5 points,yes Caleb Williams: 175+,no Philadelphia wins by over 2.5 goals,no Over 6.5 goals scored,no Over 7.5 goals scored,yes Gabby Williams: 15+,no Golden State wins by over 9.5 points$37 on Yes at 2¢, Oct 21
- 3+$618yes Matthew Stafford: 225+,yes Blake Corum: 30+,yes Los Angeles R wins by over 6.5 points,yes Davante Adams: 1+,no New York wins by over 3.5 points,no Over 179.5 points scored$42 on Yes at 6¢, Sep 21
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
yes Anthony Edwards: 2+,yes Josh Giddey: 6+,yes LaMelo Ball: 6+,yes Toronto,yes Jalen Johnson: 15+,yes Paolo Banchero: 15+,yes Michael Porter Jr.: 15+,yes Pascal Siakam: 15+,yes Keyonte George: 15+,no Miami wins by over 11.5 points,no Over 251.5 points,yes Over 221.5 points,no Over 270.5 points,no Over 9.5 goals scored,no Over 9.5 goals scored,yes Aston Villa,yes Real Madrid,no Over 5.5 goals scored,no Over 5.5 goals scored4¢2100%+$1.9K
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026OVESQBBIBDNY5RT4-2SMO2YO2X1+$0
BTC price up in next 15 mins?20¢3629%-$74
yes Chicago C,yes New York Y,yes St. Louis,yes Houston,yes San Diego9¢20%-$28
no Shane McClanahan: 8+,no Gage Jump: 7+,no Javier Assad: 5+43¢20%-$120
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 25Oct 22
Profit by month
Mar 2026-$836
Apr 2026-$728
May 2026-$505
Jun 2026-$1.4K
Jul 2026-$234
Aug 2026+$104
Sep 2026+$393
Oct 2026+$3.9K
Kalshi leaderboards
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