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Stats as of

hard.breath

-$1.3K
Tracked Trades
2,511
First Seen
Feb 24, 2026
Last Trade
Nov 4, 2026
Best In NFL
79% won · 29 settled · +$5.3K

This trader is a closer

61% of this trader's buys are at 95¢ or higher, on outcomes that are nearly decided. The win rate is high because the odds are short: copying them risks 95¢ or more to make 5¢ or less. If you want better odds, skip their 95¢+ buys or pick someone else.

hard.breath is a Kalshi trader with 2,511 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 935 wins and 717 losses on settled markets, -$1.3K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Ohio wins on Nov 4.

Win rate
57%
Return on settled
+-0%
Money traded
$755.5K
Typical trade
$25.13
Avg entry
66¢
Kalshi rank
#6,206

Profit over time

+$1.3K-$9.2K
Feb 24Nov 4

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢7703%4%+1 pts
20 to 40¢26231%29%-2 pts
40 to 60¢51851%50%+0 pts
60 to 80¢38369%67%-2 pts
Over 80¢57893%95%+1 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $962817%-$233.88
$9 to $2562844%+$197.20
$25 to $11862849%-$2.3K
$118 to $4.0K62783%+$998.01

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Bitcoin217561%-$2.4K
College basketball4753%-$3.0K
NFL6079%+$5.3K
College football4254%+$560.39
NBA3848%+$285.81
Parlays1244%+$2.0K

Side taken

Yes 53%47% No

If you had copied hard.breath

$100 per bet, last 90 days

+$1,063.04
Profit
on $98,200.00 staked
588-394
Record
60% win rate
+1%
Return
1 still open
Profit over time982 settled trades
+$1.1K-$4.8K
Oct 12Nov 2
-$5.3K
Max drawdown
4897% below peak
0.2×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.03×
Profit factor
$40.5K won vs $39.4K lost
-1.3 pts
Edge vs implied
60% won at 61¢ avg
Longest losing streak
5
Deepest drawdown
858 trades

By category

sports112 settled+34%
other10 settled+4%
crypto859 settled-3%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

1 open position worth $51.99

The markets hard.breath is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what hard.breath is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Ohio wins
Nov 4
Sold Nosold 49¢$641.76Exited
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Nov 4, 2 fills
Yes90¢$2.0K-$2.0K
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Nov 3, 2 fills
Yes90¢$1.8K+$195.74
See every position across 1,146 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    yes Denver,yes Los Angeles R,yes Washington
    $1.2K on Yes at 26¢, Nov 1
    +$3.4K
  2. 2
    BTC price up in next 15 mins?
    $464.76 on Yes at 25¢, Oct 19
    +$1.4K
  3. 3
    KXNFLTOTAL-26NOV01ATLTB-27
    $1.8K on No at 56¢, Nov 1
    +$1.4K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
BTC price up in next 15 mins?90¢184165%+$2.7K
Los Angeles R wins97¢4100%+$126.06
Bitcoin price on Oct 16, 2026?37¢3029%-$1.0K
Bitcoin price on Oct 19, 2026?25¢814%-$3.0K
Las Vegas wins86¢2100%+$497.01

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 7Nov 4

Profit by month

Feb 2026-$783.73
Mar 2026-$3.5K
Oct 2026-$3.4K
Nov 2026+$6.4K

Kalshi leaderboards

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