Stats as of
hard.hand
-$5.5K
- Tracked Trades
- 982
- First Seen
- Jun 14, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 14, 2026
hard.hand is a Kalshi trader with 982 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 177 wins and 392 losses on settled markets, -$5.5K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: BTC price up in next 15 mins? on Oct 14.
- Win rate
- 31%
- Return on settled
- -13%
- Money traded
- $116.0K
- Typical trade
- $26
- Avg entry
- 33¢
- Kalshi rank
- #5,670
Profit over time
+$0-$8.9K
Jun 14Oct 14
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢2329%7%-3 pts
20 to 40¢23431%32%+1 pts
40 to 60¢23849%41%-8 pts
60 to 80¢3470%36%-34 pts
Over 80¢24493%100%+7 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $524614%-$133
$5 to $2624637%+$187
$26 to $10124530%-$1.9K
$102 to $19K24545%-$3.6K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Bitcoin98231%-$5.5K
Side taken
Yes 57%43% No
If you had copied hard.hand
$100 per trade, last 90 days
+$7121
Profit
on $15100 staked
69-82
Record
46% win rate
+47%
Return
+$8.5K+$0
Oct 5Oct 12
-$4.0K
Max drawdown
36% below peak
1.8×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.87×
Profit factor
$15.3K won vs $8.2K lost
+12.2 pts
Edge vs implied
46% won at 33¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 32
- Deepest drawdown
- 50 trades
By category
crypto151 settled+47%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 14, 5 fills
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 14, 6 fills
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 14, 19 fills
Biggest wins
- 1+$2.2KBTC price up in next 15 mins?$1.4K on Yes at 39¢, Jun 15
- 2+$1.6KBTC price up in next 15 mins?$1.9K on Yes at 54¢, Jun 15
- 3+$1.6KBTC price up in next 15 mins?$709 on Yes at 31¢, Jun 14
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
BTC price up in next 15 mins?33¢96831%-$5.4K
Bitcoin price on Jun 14, 2026?42¢1429%-$107
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 17Oct 14
Profit by month
Jun 2026-$8.9K
Oct 2026+$3.4K
Kalshi leaderboards
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