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Stats as of

hobnaildawg

-$426.26
Tracked Trades
954
First Seen
Apr 5, 2026
Last Trade
Oct 31, 2026
Best In Mentions
55% won · 116 settled · +$1.1K

hobnaildawg is a Kalshi trader with 954 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 238 wins and 334 losses on settled markets, -$426.26 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Harriet Dart wins on Oct 31.

Win rate
42%
Return on settled
-2%
Money traded
$66.4K
Typical trade
$39.70
Avg entry
21¢
Kalshi rank
#4,730

Profit over time

+$1.9K-$1.9K
Apr 5Oct 31

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢2128%5%-4 pts
20 to 40¢15630%33%+4 pts
40 to 60¢19750%46%-4 pts
60 to 80¢8568%62%-6 pts
Over 80¢5290%86%-5 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $1017637%+$163.41
$10 to $4117632%-$552.76
$42 to $9617526%-$2.1K
$96 to $2.7K17548%+$2.0K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Parlays40325%-$1.8K
Hockey2360%+$391.84
Mentions2743%+$1.0K
NBA4145%+$122.83
Baseball3437%-$488.37
NFL10144%-$95.21

Side taken

Yes 73%27% No

If you had copied hobnaildawg

$100 per bet, last 90 days

-$3,578.45
Profit
on $22,600.00 staked
81-145
Record
36% win rate
-16%
Return
81 still open
Profit over time226 settled trades
+$186.44-$3.6K
Aug 3Oct 26
-$3.9K
Max drawdown
2075% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.75×
Profit factor
$10.9K won vs $14.5K lost
-2.1 pts
Edge vs implied
36% won at 38¢ avg
Longest losing streak
25
Deepest drawdown
221 trades

By category

sports223 settled-16%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

81 open positions worth $5.0K

The markets hobnaildawg is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what hobnaildawg is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Harriet Dart wins
Oct 31, 2 fills
Yes49¢$482.76+$502.46
yes Aleksandar Kovacevic,yes Harriet Dart
Oct 31
Yes27¢$237.80-$237.80
yes Tallon Griekspoor,yes Harriet Dart
Oct 31
Yes30¢$47.65-$47.65
See every position across 474 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026G2BYMMCTCZRTNV64-4NCPNUKQ5
    $956.85 on Yes at 36¢, Oct 29
    +$1.7K
  2. 2
    What will Donald Trump say during The White House Easter Egg Roll?
    $88.24 on Yes at 8¢, Apr 6
    +$1.0K
  3. 3
    Denver vs Michigan Winner?
    $728.43 on Yes at 51¢, Apr 10
    +$699.57
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
yes Ramazonbek Temirov by KO/TKO/DQ,yes Losene Keita by KO/TKO/DQ,yes Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ2¢20%-$46.70
yes North Texas wins by over 7.5 points,yes James Madison wins by over 10.5 points21¢40%-$421.91
Denver vs Michigan Winner?52¢780%+$457.09
yes KO/TKO/DQ,yes Losene Keita by KO/TKO/DQ,yes Petr Yan by KO/TKO/DQ3¢20%-$46.77
yes Felix Auger-Aliassime,yes Joao Fonseca,yes Hubert Hurkacz,yes Rafael Jodar,yes Tommy Paul,yes Michael Zheng,yes Ethan Quinn,yes Brandon Nakashima,yes Jannik Sinner,yes Novak Djokovic12¢2+$0.00

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 3Oct 31

Profit by month

Apr 2026+$362.72
May 2026-$1.1K
Aug 2026-$609.77
Sep 2026-$473.62
Oct 2026+$1.4K

Kalshi leaderboards

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