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Stats as of

known.cause

+$124.81
Tracked Trades
106
First Seen
Oct 25, 2025
Last Trade
Oct 29, 2026

known.cause is a Kalshi trader with 106 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 30 wins and 27 losses on settled markets, $124.81 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027? on Oct 29.

Win rate
53%
Return on settled
+7%
Money traded
$9.0K
Typical trade
$20.01
Avg entry
68¢
Kalshi rank
#4,722

Profit over time

+$228.00-$5.00
Oct 25Sep 7

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢247%0%-7 pts
20 to 40¢2329%44%+16 pts
40 to 60¢2451%62%+10 pts
60 to 80¢1971%79%+8 pts
Over 80¢1692%88%-4 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $62719%-$22.88
$6 to $202771%+$105.34
$20 to $442664%+$10.08
$45 to $4.9K2660%+$32.27

Categories

TradesWonProfit
US elections1133%+$85.00
Bitcoin8052%-$122.15
Entertainment3100%+$80.06
Commodities2100%+$32.37
World politics20%-$47.38
Soccer667%+$58.39

Side taken

Yes 54%46% No

If you had copied known.cause

$100 per bet, last 90 days

-$31.44
Profit
on $2,000.00 staked
12-8
Record
60% win rate
-2%
Return
2 still open
Profit over time20 settled trades
+$46.66-$31.44
Aug 3Oct 26
-$300.93
Max drawdown
122% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.96×
Profit factor
$768.56 won vs $800.00 lost
+3.5 pts
Edge vs implied
60% won at 56¢ avg
Longest losing streak
2
Deepest drawdown
9 trades

By category

crypto19 settled-11%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

2 open positions worth $4.9K

The markets known.cause is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what known.cause is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Sep 7
Sold Yessold 3¢$0.70Exited
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Sep 7
No94¢$18.92+$1.14
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Sep 7, 4 fills
No55¢sold 28¢$69.22+$56.37
See every position across 42 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Margin of victory for Zohran Mamdani in the Mayoral Election?
    $213.36 on No at 69¢, Nov 3
    +$96.64
  2. 2
    Pinocchio Unstrung Rotten Tomatoes score?
    $96.91 on Yes at 55¢, Jul 24
    +$80.06
  3. 3
    BTC price up in next 15 mins?
    $66.92 on Yes at 49¢, Aug 4
    +$70.12
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?92¢1+$0.00
BTC price up in next 15 mins?38¢8052%-$122.15
Margin of victory for Zohran Mamdani in the Mayoral Election?69¢3100%+$96.64
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?35¢2+$0.00
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >101.99 on May 15, 2026?86¢2100%+$32.37

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 1Oct 29

Profit by month

Oct 2025-$4.68
Nov 2025+$89.68
Jan 2026-$47.38
May 2026+$32.37
Jul 2026+$55.57
Aug 2026-$27.67
Sep 2026+$26.92

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