Get an alert the moment launch.firm trades.
Their next buy lands on your phone and Telegram with the market, the side and the price.
Stats as of
launch.firm
+$1.7K
- Tracked Trades
- 205
- First Seen
- Jan 21, 2026
- Last Trade
- Nov 3, 2026
- Best In Parlays
- 60% won · 60 settled · +$2.9K
launch.firm is a Kalshi trader with 205 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 87 wins and 85 losses on settled markets, $1.7K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026X47KT74EGFI5ZPGR-LYFJPOIOI on Nov 3.
- Win rate
- 51%
- Return on settled
- +6%
- Money traded
- $45.7K
- Typical trade
- $111.49
- Avg entry
- 45¢
- Kalshi rank
- #3,249
Profit over time
+$5.6K-$1.2K
Jan 21Nov 3
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢178%14%+7 pts
20 to 40¢3632%23%-9 pts
40 to 60¢10051%53%+2 pts
60 to 80¢3767%78%+11 pts
Over 80¢1593%100%+7 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $485252%+$233.87
$48 to $1115133%-$1.2K
$114 to $2395155%-$236.89
$241 to $4.2K5168%+$2.9K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Parlays7560%+$2.9K
Tennis6063%+$2.4K
NFL40%-$1.9K
Baseball2836%-$747.11
Hockey1421%-$555.74
Golf50%-$471.88
Side taken
Yes 78%22% No
If you had copied launch.firm
$100 per bet, last 90 days
+$1,237.12
Profit
on $4,600.00 staked
29-17
Record
63% win rate
+27%
Return
+$1.2K+$0.00
Aug 31Nov 2
-$401.50
Max drawdown
46% below peak
3.1×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.73×
Profit factor
$2.9K won vs $1.7K lost
+17.0 pts
Edge vs implied
63% won at 46¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 4
- Deepest drawdown
- 7 trades
By category
sports41 settled+27%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026X47KT74EGFI5ZPGR-LYFJPOIOI
Nov 3
Parlay: Golden State + Los Angeles C
Nov 3
yes Oregon,yes Over 156.5 points
Nov 3, 2 fills
Biggest wins
- 1+$893.84Karen Khachanov wins$1.3K on Yes at 60¢, Nov 2
- 2+$745.89yes Rafael Jodar,yes Casper Ruud,yes Luca Van Assche$675.13 on Yes at 48¢, Nov 2
- 3+$737.58yes Los Angeles R,yes New England,yes Minnesota,yes Over 4.5 goals scored$479.55 on Yes at 39¢, Nov 1
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
Seattle wins45¢30%-$902.70
yes Rachaad White,yes Tanner McKee: 150+,yes Jayden Daniels: 150+,no Over 53.5 points8¢20%-$170.91
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026X47KT74EGFI5ZPGR-LYFJPOIOI1+$0.00
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026FWRVPLS2XWCZJ242-QVX5NT7ZI70¢1100%+$620.77
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026YBK7QX3DP6RQSI2U-6AACELO7Q48¢20%-$675.47
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Aug 6Nov 3
Profit by month
Jan 2026+$12.07
Apr 2026+$92.91
May 2026-$175.66
Jun 2026-$195.34
Jul 2026-$150.93
Aug 2026-$632.10
Sep 2026-$2.30
Oct 2026-$187.37
Nov 2026+$3.0K
Kalshi leaderboards
Similar Kalshi traders
Build a bot that copies launch.firm.
Bring launch.firm into the builder. Choose your size and review the backtest. Track new trades on paper or enable supported live copying through your own Kalshi account. Set your limits and inspect each execution from the bot dashboard.