rivomarkets

Get an alert the moment lie.shift trades.

Their next buy lands on your phone and Telegram with the market, the side and the price.

Get alerts on lie.shift

Stats as of

lie.shift

+$149
Tracked Trades
1,000
First Seen
Jul 20, 2026
Last Trade
Oct 21, 2026
Best In Commodities
39% won · 336 settled · +$116

lie.shift is a Kalshi trader with 1,000 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 283 wins and 313 losses on settled markets, $149 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 41.99° on Oct 21, 2026 at 7am EDT? on Oct 21.

Win rate
47%
Return on settled
+5%
Money traded
$7.1K
Typical trade
$2
Avg entry
38¢
Kalshi rank
#4,826

Profit over time

+$228-$7
Jul 20Oct 21

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢2787%8%+1 pts
20 to 40¢16629%30%+1 pts
40 to 60¢19649%55%+6 pts
60 to 80¢13269%70%+1 pts
Over 80¢22892%92%-1 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $125019%-$3
$1 to $225048%+$27
$2 to $525050%+$5
$5 to $24825082%+$120

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Commodities49739%+$116
Economic data14050%-$1
Tennis13071%+$59
Soccer14760%-$17
US politics7100%+$1
NFL867%+$1

Side taken

Yes 54%46% No

If you had copied lie.shift

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$613
Profit
on $52100 staked
236-285
Record
45% win rate
+1%
Return
7 still open
Profit over time521 settled trades
+$1.8K-$2.8K
Jul 20Oct 19
-$3.2K
Max drawdown
78445% below peak
0.2×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.02×
Profit factor
$29.1K won vs $28.5K lost
+2.5 pts
Edge vs implied
45% won at 43¢ avg
Longest losing streak
28
Deepest drawdown
258 trades

By category

culture10 settled+37%
finance378 settled+7%
sports124 settled-17%
politics6 settled-83%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

1 open position worth $125

The markets lie.shift is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what lie.shift is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 41.99° on Oct 21, 2026 at 7am EDT?
Oct 21
No20¢$0-$0
Will it rain in Los Angeles on Oct 21, 2026?
Oct 20
Sold Nosold 9¢$1Exited
Will it rain in Albuquerque on Oct 21, 2026?
Oct 20
No61¢$3+$2
See every position across 393 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will Ogura / Sumizawa win the Ogura / Sumizawa vs Mehrotra / Talic: M15 Brisbane Round of 16 match?
    $15 on No at 28¢, Jul 21
    +$40
  2. 2
    Gold price up in next 15 mins?
    $6 on No at 15¢, Sep 3
    +$33
  3. 3
    Gold price up in next 15 mins?
    $19 on Yes at 37¢, Sep 1
    +$33
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Gold price up in next 15 mins?28¢42542%+$138
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?90¢3676%+$9
Will Eric Cuevas win the Sanders vs Cuevas: M15 Huamantla Round of 16 match?95¢1290%+$13
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.4600?54¢16100%+$17
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026?1¢40%-$0

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jul 24Oct 21

Profit by month

Jul 2026+$28
Aug 2026+$30
Sep 2026+$97
Oct 2026-$6

Kalshi leaderboards

Similar Kalshi traders

Build a bot that copies lie.shift.

Bring lie.shift into the builder. Choose your size and review the backtest. Track new trades on paper or enable supported live copying through your own Kalshi account. Set your limits and inspect each execution from the bot dashboard.