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Stats as of
LilTismGuessing
liltismguessing
+$5.6K
- Tracked Trades
- 472
- First Seen
- Sep 26, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 31, 2026
- Best In College football
- 71% won · 14 settled · +$6.1K
LilTismGuessing is a Kalshi trader with 472 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 91 wins and 229 losses on settled markets, $5.6K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Minnesota wins on Oct 31.
- Win rate
- 28%
- Return on settled
- +30%
- Money traded
- $38.0K
- Typical trade
- $28.52
- Avg entry
- 24¢
- Kalshi rank
- #1,366
Profit over time
+$5.6K-$9.00
Sep 26Oct 24
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢10110%16%+7 pts
20 to 40¢18130%30%-1 pts
40 to 60¢11947%38%-10 pts
60 to 80¢3870%33%-36 pts
Over 80¢3393%67%-26 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $1511816%-$39.38
$15 to $2811824%-$385.41
$29 to $7511841%+$1.2K
$76 to $1.6K11840%+$4.9K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Commodities40028%+$95.67
College football2271%+$6.1K
Bitcoin2516%-$653.79
NFL1831%+$396.45
Parlays70%-$283.16
Side taken
Yes 44%56% No
If you had copied LilTismGuessing
$100 per bet, last 90 days
+$5,454.35
Profit
on $20,300.00 staked
69-134
Record
34% win rate
+27%
Return
+$6.2K-$100.00
Sep 21Oct 19
-$1.9K
Max drawdown
30% below peak
2.8×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.41×
Profit factor
$18.9K won vs $13.4K lost
-0.4 pts
Edge vs implied
34% won at 34¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 12
- Deepest drawdown
- 108 trades
By category
sports21 settled+302%
crypto12 settled-5%
finance170 settled-5%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Minnesota wins
Oct 31
Ole Miss wins
Oct 25
South Carolina wins
Oct 24
Biggest wins
- 1+$2.0KSouth Carolina wins$396.85 on Yes at 16¢, Oct 10
- 2+$1.9KSouth Carolina wins$574.92 on Yes at 24¢, Oct 24
- 3+$1.4KKentucky wins$141.18 on Yes at 9¢, Oct 3
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
WTI Oil price up in next 15 mins?31¢39928%+$190.61
BTC price up in next 15 mins?29¢2411%-$703.35
South Carolina wins20¢6100%+$3.9K
Arkansas wins9¢20%-$188.02
Cleveland wins16¢60%-$387.96
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Aug 3Oct 31
Profit by month
Sep 2026-$8.82
Oct 2026+$5.6K
Kalshi leaderboards
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