Stats as of
misleading.caterpillar1416
+$3.6K
- Tracked Trades
- 488
- First Seen
- Oct 8, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 14, 2026
- Best In Bitcoin
- 77% won · 423 settled · +$3.3K
misleading.caterpillar1416 is a Kalshi trader with 488 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 326 wins and 99 losses on settled markets, $3.6K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: BTC price up in next 15 mins? on Oct 14.
- Win rate
- 77%
- Return on settled
- +6%
- Money traded
- $62.2K
- Typical trade
- $24
- Avg entry
- 84¢
- Kalshi rank
- #1,790
Profit over time
+$3.6K-$26
Oct 8Oct 12
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢336%0%-6 pts
20 to 40¢1533%64%+31 pts
40 to 60¢5353%25%-28 pts
60 to 80¢12371%68%-3 pts
Over 80¢26492%99%+7 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $212272%+$1
$3 to $2412258%-$197
$24 to $13212283%+$254
$133 to $2.0K12294%+$3.6K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Bitcoin48377%+$3.6K
NFL20%-$44
Baseball3100%+$25
Side taken
Yes 50%50% No
If you had copied misleading.caterpillar1416
$100 per trade, last 90 days
-$1989
Profit
on $42500 staked
326-99
Record
77% win rate
-5%
Return
+$0-$2.0K
Oct 5Oct 12
-$3.3K
Max drawdown
397% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.80×
Profit factor
$7.9K won vs $9.9K lost
+0.7 pts
Edge vs implied
77% won at 76¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 18
- Deepest drawdown
- 349 trades
By category
sports5 settled+21%
other6 settled+19%
crypto414 settled-5%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 14
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 12
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 12, 2 fills
Biggest wins
- 1+$495BTC price up in next 15 mins?$1.2K on No at 71¢, Oct 12
- 2+$356BTC price up in next 15 mins?$2.0K on Yes at 85¢, Oct 12
- 3+$260BTC price up in next 15 mins?$1.6K on Yes at 86¢, Oct 12
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
BTC price up in next 15 mins?84¢48377%+$3.6K
Dallas wins80¢10%-$25
Philadelphia wins32¢10%-$19
Cleveland wins52¢1100%+$9
Will Chicago WS score over 3.5 runs?46¢1100%+$9
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 17Oct 14
Profit by month
Oct 2026+$3.6K
Kalshi leaderboards
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