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Stats as of
small.bear
-$97
- Tracked Trades
- 552
- First Seen
- Feb 26, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 18, 2026
- Best In College football
- 68% won · 92 settled · +$3.2K
small.bear is a Kalshi trader with 552 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 155 wins and 255 losses on settled markets, -$97 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Philadelphia wins on Oct 18.
- Win rate
- 38%
- Return on settled
- -1%
- Money traded
- $30.2K
- Typical trade
- $6
- Avg entry
- 33¢
- Kalshi rank
- #5,118
Profit over time
+$1.7K-$429
Feb 26Oct 18
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢7710%22%+12 pts
20 to 40¢19729%31%+2 pts
40 to 60¢19250%41%-9 pts
60 to 80¢7862%66%+4 pts
Over 80¢896%
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $113821%-$17
$1 to $613855%+$109
$6 to $3313842%+$231
$33 to $2.0K13836%-$420
Categories
TradesWonProfit
College football11568%+$3.2K
Tennis25529%-$947
NFL7418%-$1.9K
Bitcoin7927%-$414
Baseball750%+$15
WNBA350%-$33
Side taken
Yes 81%19% No
If you had copied small.bear
$100 per bet, last 90 days
-$72
Profit
on $9700 staked
35-62
Record
36% win rate
-1%
Return
+$19-$400
Aug 3Oct 12
-$1.2K
Max drawdown
339% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.99×
Profit factor
$6.1K won vs $6.2K lost
-0.4 pts
Edge vs implied
36% won at 36¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 7
- Deepest drawdown
- 48 trades
By category
sports77 settled+0%
crypto20 settled-5%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Philadelphia wins
Oct 18
KXATPMATCH-26OCT18KUMMMO-KUM
Oct 18
Jacksonville wins
Oct 18
Biggest wins
- 1+$1.5KMiami (FL) wins$1.3K on Yes at 46¢, Oct 18
- 2+$1.4KOklahoma wins$437 on Yes at 24¢, Oct 10
- 3+$746Auburn wins$92 on Yes at 11¢, Oct 17
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
Florida St. wins18¢70%-$1.2K
BTC price up in next 15 mins?38¢5232%-$369
Miami (FL) wins46¢4100%+$1.5K
Philadelphia wins36¢30%-$1.2K
Jacksonville wins39¢5100%+$709
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 21Oct 18
Profit by month
Feb 2026+$9
Mar 2026-$9
Apr 2026-$78
Jun 2026+$35
Jul 2026-$90
Aug 2026-$85
Sep 2026-$228
Oct 2026+$349
Kalshi leaderboards
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