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Stats as of

tough.disk

-$10.4K
Tracked Trades
208
First Seen
Nov 4, 2024
Last Trade
Oct 28, 2026
Best In NBA
77% won · 13 settled · +$529.23

tough.disk is a Kalshi trader with 208 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 48 wins and 69 losses on settled markets, -$10.4K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will Democrats win the House in 2026? on Oct 28.

Win rate
41%
Return on settled
-39%
Money traded
$77.8K
Typical trade
$111.74
Avg entry
34¢
Kalshi rank
#6,192

Profit over time

+$835.00-$10.4K
Nov 4Sep 10

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢3713%0%-13 pts
20 to 40¢2330%9%-21 pts
40 to 60¢4953%63%+10 pts
60 to 80¢5167%62%-5 pts
Over 80¢4889%50%-39 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$3 to $565248%-$258.34
$56 to $1115230%-$1.8K
$112 to $4735250%-$1.8K
$478 to $9.5K5241%-$6.6K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Soccer15636%-$10.4K
Fed and rates1443%+$133.39
NBA1677%+$529.23
Bitcoin40%-$1.1K
NFL350%-$807.86
US elections3100%+$834.55

Side taken

Yes 56%44% No

If you had copied tough.disk

$100 per bet, last 90 days

Not enough settled trades to score yet

1 of 5 needed have resolved. 4 still open.

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

2 open positions worth $1.3K

The markets tough.disk is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what tough.disk is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
Oct 26, 49 fills
Sold Nosold 86¢$5.2KExited
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Oct 24, 12 fills
Sold Nosold 48¢$259.43Exited
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?
Sep 16, 3 fills
Sold Nosold 89¢$1.5KExited
See every position across 67 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2025 meeting?
    $981.89 on Yes at 51¢, Nov 21
    +$944.11
  2. 2
    Will Donald Trump or another Republican win the Presidency?
    $999.45 on Yes at 54¢, Nov 4
    +$834.55
  3. 3
    Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
    $1.7K on No at 67¢, Jul 20
    +$812.47
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?22¢517%-$7.7K
Will the PSG win the Club World Cup?74¢40%-$2.1K
Will Bitcoin be above $$100,000 by Dec 31, 2025 at 11:59pm ET?50¢40%-$1.1K
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?40¢50%-$741.81
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the Super Bowl?52¢20%-$823.16

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jul 31Oct 28

Profit by month

Jul 2025-$2.1K
Sep 2025-$86.57
Oct 2025+$587.03
Nov 2025+$944.11
Dec 2025-$1.1K
Jan 2026-$232.59
Feb 2026+$15.30
Apr 2026+$34.32
May 2026+$52.90
Jun 2026-$789.96
Jul 2026-$7.9K
Sep 2026-$741.81

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