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Stats as of
tough.smoke
-$597.32
- Tracked Trades
- 412
- First Seen
- Jan 1, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 26, 2026
- Best In NFL
- 35% won · 34 settled · +$94.97
tough.smoke is a Kalshi trader with 412 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 57 wins and 300 losses on settled markets, -$597.32 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: yes Yuka Matsumoto,yes Tijuana,yes America,yes Minnesota on Oct 26.
- Win rate
- 16%
- Return on settled
- -12%
- Money traded
- $28.3K
- Typical trade
- $9.37
- Avg entry
- 2¢
- Kalshi rank
- #5,714
Profit over time
+$0.00-$1.5K
Jan 1Oct 26
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢2576%5%-1 pts
20 to 40¢7128%12%-16 pts
40 to 60¢4447%57%+10 pts
60 to 80¢2170%100%+30 pts
Over 80¢1991%100%+9 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $910318%-$243.40
$9 to $91036%+$768.05
$9 to $1910315%-$255.12
$19 to $12K10330%-$866.85
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Parlays1787%-$16.66
NBA9922%-$385.38
NFL4635%+$94.97
College basketball6715%-$298.49
Tennis1278%+$102.60
Boxing30%-$52.61
Side taken
Yes 87%13% No
If you had copied tough.smoke
$100 per bet, last 90 days
+$11,231.00
Profit
on $11,000.00 staked
9-101
Record
8% win rate
+102%
Return
+$12.7K-$200.00
Aug 17Oct 26
-$4.8K
Max drawdown
52% below peak
2.3×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
2.11×
Profit factor
$21.3K won vs $10.1K lost
+2.9 pts
Edge vs implied
8% won at 5¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 31
- Deepest drawdown
- 53 trades
By category
sports110 settled+102%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
yes Yuka Matsumoto,yes Tijuana,yes America,yes Minnesota
Oct 26
yes Indiana,yes Oklahoma City,yes Memphis,yes New York,yes Denver,yes Detroit,yes Seattle,yes Los Angeles R,yes Colorado,yes Florida,yes Montreal,yes Dallas
Oct 26
yes Detroit,yes Oklahoma City,yes Memphis,yes New York,yes Minnesota,yes Seattle,yes Nashville,yes Minnesota,yes Montreal
Oct 26
Biggest wins
- 1+$765.70yes Cleveland,yes Milwaukee,yes Atlanta,yes Pittsburgh,yes Boston,yes Chicago C,yes New York M,yes Cleveland$9.30 on Yes at 1¢, Sep 4
- 2+$458.64Jacksonville wins$9.36 on Yes at 2¢, Oct 11
- 3+$266.22yes Cleveland,yes Milwaukee,yes Indiana,yes Montreal,yes Edmonton,yes Boston,yes New Jersey$9.37 on Yes at 3¢, Oct 10
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
yes Philadelphia,yes Oklahoma City,yes New England,yes New Jersey,yes Carolina,yes Detroit,yes Los Angeles,yes Minnesota,yes Boston,yes New York R,yes Ottawa,yes Utah,yes Vegas,yes Dallas0¢20%-$8.75
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026ABO7OXQW6VBH2KBE-G2DPNFRMG1+$0.00
yes Rafael Devers: 1+,yes Jackson Merrill: 1+,yes Daylen Lile: 1+1¢20%-$8.97
yes Minnesota,yes Toronto,yes Tampa Bay,yes Los Angeles D,yes Milwaukee,yes Washington,yes Baltimore,yes Chicago C1¢20%-$9.28
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY0-SHARD1-S2026D5F56AC9939-A3354519A541+$0.00
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 29Oct 26
Profit by month
Jan 2026-$348.39
Feb 2026-$37.64
Mar 2026-$709.42
Apr 2026-$210.21
May 2026-$163.40
Jul 2026-$32.07
Aug 2026+$109.67
Sep 2026+$224.37
Oct 2026+$569.77
Kalshi leaderboards
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