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Stats as of
uncertain.lizard6078
-$2.3K
- Tracked Trades
- 186
- First Seen
- Jul 21, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 31, 2026
uncertain.lizard6078 is a Kalshi trader with 186 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 49 wins and 72 losses on settled markets, -$2.3K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: BTC price up in next 15 mins? on Oct 31.
- Win rate
- 40%
- Return on settled
- -9%
- Money traded
- $35.1K
- Typical trade
- $98.30
- Avg entry
- 40¢
- Kalshi rank
- #5,732
Profit over time
+$366.00-$3.0K
Jul 21Oct 31
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢4312%0%-12 pts
20 to 40¢5428%18%-10 pts
40 to 60¢6248%48%+0 pts
60 to 80¢2265%78%+12 pts
Over 80¢593%100%+7 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $724729%-$73.04
$81 to $994731%-$1.4K
$110 to $2844636%-$797.23
$285 to $9774659%-$1.16
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Bitcoin18640%-$2.3K
Side taken
Yes 51%49% No
If you had copied uncertain.lizard6078
$100 per bet, last 90 days
-$1,121.84
Profit
on $7,600.00 staked
33-43
Record
43% win rate
-15%
Return
+$0.00-$1.1K
Aug 3Oct 26
-$1.6K
Max drawdown
454% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.74×
Profit factor
$3.2K won vs $4.3K lost
-1.5 pts
Edge vs implied
43% won at 45¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 7
- Deepest drawdown
- 65 trades
By category
crypto75 settled-16%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 31, 4 fills
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 31
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 31
Biggest wins
- 1+$553.91BTC price up in next 15 mins?$471.85 on No at 46¢, Aug 4
- 2+$509.88BTC price up in next 15 mins?$384.65 on No at 43¢, Oct 31
- 3+$502.09BTC price up in next 15 mins?$671.48 on No at 57¢, Aug 3
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
BTC price up in next 15 mins?41¢18541%-$2.2K
Bitcoin price on Jul 26, 2026?6¢10%-$93.83
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Aug 3Oct 31
Profit by month
Jul 2026-$1.0K
Aug 2026-$656.25
Sep 2026-$14.28
Oct 2026-$603.95
Kalshi leaderboards
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