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Stats as of
unfortunate.frog
+$121.11
- Tracked Trades
- 472
- First Seen
- Jul 17, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 25, 2026
- Best In Tennis
- 41% won · 81 settled · +$595.90
unfortunate.frog is a Kalshi trader with 472 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 129 wins and 188 losses on settled markets, $121.11 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20266AHHKZ7IACBY4EBU-FWVFYS4I6 on Oct 25.
- Win rate
- 41%
- Return on settled
- +1%
- Money traded
- $34.2K
- Typical trade
- $39.51
- Avg entry
- 25¢
- Kalshi rank
- #4,711
Profit over time
+$1.2K-$695.00
Jul 17Oct 24
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢1338%10%+2 pts
20 to 40¢8230%31%+1 pts
40 to 60¢15751%59%+8 pts
60 to 80¢5768%64%-4 pts
Over 80¢4390%80%-10 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $1411823%+$159.36
$14 to $3911846%+$484.76
$40 to $8111841%-$85.80
$82 to $2.3K11852%-$437.21
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Bitcoin9229%-$140.78
Tennis11441%+$595.90
Parlays4517%-$546.64
College football5147%+$239.17
NBA1430%+$153.69
Baseball5360%-$429.62
Side taken
Yes 56%44% No
If you had copied unfortunate.frog
$100 per bet, last 90 days
+$5,551.81
Profit
on $18,600.00 staked
89-97
Record
48% win rate
+30%
Return
+$5.6K-$987.93
Aug 3Oct 19
-$1.9K
Max drawdown
360% below peak
2.9×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.57×
Profit factor
$15.3K won vs $9.7K lost
+6.4 pts
Edge vs implied
48% won at 41¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 9
- Deepest drawdown
- 36 trades
By category
crypto35 settled+42%
sports151 settled+27%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20266AHHKZ7IACBY4EBU-FWVFYS4I6
Oct 25
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026VO26NC2T5WMVMD3M-VMA3VCPMQ
Oct 25
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 25
Biggest wins
- 1+$519.20Miami wins$69.31 on Yes at 12¢, Aug 30
- 2+$513.32yes SMU,yes Florida Atlantic,yes Toledo,yes Campbell,yes Dartmouth,yes Indiana,yes Valparaiso,yes Stonehill,yes Duquesne$75.35 on Yes at 13¢, Oct 24
- 3+$385.94Philadelphia wins$511.60 on Yes at 57¢, Oct 22
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
BTC price up in next 15 mins?8¢6726%-$372.12
Miami wins8¢1250%+$274.59
Will LSU win the LSU vs Ole Miss college football game?41¢80%-$466.20
Gustavo Heide wins14¢110%-$849.53
Chicago wins41¢40%-$221.89
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 28Oct 25
Profit by month
Jul 2026-$120.58
Aug 2026+$243.52
Sep 2026-$382.15
Oct 2026+$380.32
Kalshi leaderboards
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