Stats as of
warm.chance
+$3.3K
- Tracked Trades
- 34
- First Seen
- May 2, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 12, 2026
warm.chance is a Kalshi trader with 34 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 6 wins and 10 losses on settled markets, $3.3K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Buffalo wins on Oct 12.
- Win rate
- 38%
- Return on settled
- +123%
- Money traded
- $9.8K
- Typical trade
- $94
- Avg entry
- 9¢
- Kalshi rank
- #1,749
Profit over time
+$3.3K-$480
May 2Oct 12
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢248%20%+12 pts
20 to 40¢627%80%+53 pts
40 to 60¢249%0%-48 pts
60 to 80¢165%
Over 80¢190%
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $73943%+$198
$93 to $9490%-$281
$94 to $235833%+$570
$283 to $2.2K867%+$2.8K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Parlays2625%+$2.1K
NFL1100%+$1.5K
Baseball10%-$425
MMA10%-$191
NBA3100%+$346
Bitcoin20%-$55
Side taken
Yes 79%21% No
If you had copied warm.chance
$100 per trade, last 90 days
+$1651
Profit
on $1300 staked
6-7
Record
46% win rate
+127%
Return
12 still open
+$1.7K+$0
Jul 20Oct 12
Drawdown and edge need 20 settled trades to mean anything. 13 so far.
By category
sports13 settled+127%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Open positions
13 open positions worth $2.1K
The markets warm.chance is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Buffalo wins
Oct 12
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026F5DDF2EFA8A-8CB81E9CB95
Oct 12
yes Denver,yes Detroit,yes San Francisco
Oct 11
Biggest wins
- 1+$1.7Kyes Denver,yes Detroit,yes San Francisco$283 on Yes at 14¢, Oct 11
- 2+$1.5KBuffalo wins$959 on Yes at 39¢, Oct 12
- 3+$856yes Los Angeles A,yes Milwaukee$185 on Yes at 18¢, Aug 13
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
yes New York Y,yes Los Angeles D,yes Minnesota,yes Atlanta6¢2+$0
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY0-S2026D0D32BE6C3B-3C0B70410D21+$0
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026F5DDF2EFA8A-8CB81E9CB951+$0
Buffalo wins39¢1100%+$1.5K
yes New York Y,yes Atlanta,yes Milwaukee19¢1+$0
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 15Oct 12
Profit by month
May 2026-$480
Jul 2026+$159
Aug 2026+$664
Sep 2026-$94
Oct 2026+$3.0K
Kalshi leaderboards
Similar Kalshi traders
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