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Stats as of

Polymarket

caffe-paper

0x5a955a1dbf16a3fc8bed8405a2019f29b6fe2ef9

+$569
Tracked Trades
147
First Seen
Sep 27, 2026
Last Trade
Oct 23, 2026
Best In Fed and rates
98% won · 51 settled · +$891

caffe-paper is a Polymarket trader with 147 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 79 wins and 35 losses on settled markets, $569 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting? on Oct 23.

Win rate
69%
Return on settled
+13%
Money traded
$21.9K
Typical trade
$13
Avg entry
51¢
Polymarket rank
#4,049

Profit over time

+$569-$329
Sep 30Oct 23

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢46%0%-6 pts
20 to 40¢1928%8%-20 pts
40 to 60¢4952%55%+3 pts
60 to 80¢6474%96%+22 pts
Over 80¢1182%100%+18 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$2 to $33756%+$6
$3 to $133767%-$20
$13 to $1163779%+$199
$132 to $1.5K3690%+$384

Categories

TradesWonProfit
US elections13+$0
World politics2211%-$183
Fed and rates5298%+$891
Soccer5+$0
Other politics433%-$127
Bitcoin2560%+$1

Side taken

Yes 94%6% No

If you had copied caffe-paper

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$530
Profit
on $11400 staked
79-35
Record
69% win rate
+5%
Return
22 still open
Profit over time114 settled trades
+$530-$754
Sep 21Oct 19
-$1.3K
Max drawdown
500% below peak
0.4×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.15×
Profit factor
$4.0K won vs $3.5K lost
+8.9 pts
Edge vs implied
69% won at 60¢ avg
Longest losing streak
8
Deepest drawdown
19 trades

By category

finance51 settled+25%
crypto51 settled-2%
politics12 settled-56%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

10 open positions worth $10.7K

The markets caffe-paper is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what caffe-paper is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?
Oct 23, 51 fills
Yes79¢sold 80¢$3.4K+$901
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Oct 22, 4 fills
Yes56¢sold 47¢$757Exited
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Oct 22
Sold Yessold 28¢$420Exited
See every position across 72 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?
    $3.4K on Yes at 79¢, Oct 23
    +$901
  2. 2
    Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?
    $260 on No at 59¢, Oct 14
    +$180
  3. 3
    Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
    $56 on Yes at 28¢, Sep 30
    +$144
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?79¢51100%+$901
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?75¢2+$0
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?56¢4+$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?78¢3+$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?65¢4+$0

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jul 26Oct 23

Profit by month

Sep 2026+$144
Oct 2026+$425

How they build positions

Trimmed a position67%
Closed a position33%

Polymarket leaderboards

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