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Stats as of

lava-lava

0x629bc4a1e53e1d475beb7ea3d388791e96dd995a

+$351.1K
Tracked Trades
940
First Seen
Aug 24, 2026
Last Trade
Nov 3, 2026
Best In World politics
71% won · 595 settled · +$288.5K

Market maker

Market makers buy both sides of the same markets and earn the spread between them. Each of their trades is half of a hedge, not a pick, so copying one side does not copy how they make money.

Active politics traders who bet one side: Abkha, Flipadelphia, Kickstand7

lava-lava is a Polymarket trader with 940 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 485 wins and 201 losses on settled markets, $351.1K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? on Nov 3.

Win rate
71%
Return on settled
+31%
Money traded
$1.6M
Typical trade
$1.0K
Avg entry
50¢
Polymarket rank
#147

Profit over time

+$351.2K-$48.4K
Aug 24Nov 3

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢6013%24%+11 pts
20 to 40¢20730%65%+35 pts
40 to 60¢20150%63%+13 pts
60 to 80¢31670%76%+6 pts
Over 80¢15689%88%-1 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$1 to $65523565%+$23.0K
$659 to $1.0K23573%+$57.1K
$1.0K to $1.8K23570%+$59.8K
$1.9K to $26K23574%+$211.3K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
World politics73771%+$288.5K
US elections19771%+$62.6K
Parlays6+$0.00

Side taken

Yes 52%48% No

If you had copied lava-lava

$100 per bet, last 90 days

-$53.88
Profit
on $20,100.00 staked
115-86
Record
57% win rate
-0%
Return
62 still open
Profit over time201 settled trades
+$956.90-$1.8K
Aug 24Nov 2
-$1.9K
Max drawdown
never got above break-even
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.99×
Profit factor
$8.5K won vs $8.6K lost
+0.5 pts
Edge vs implied
57% won at 57¢ avg
Longest losing streak
6
Deepest drawdown
60 trades

By category

politics194 settled+1%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

39 open positions worth $248.5K

The markets lava-lava is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what lava-lava is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
Nov 3, 3 fills
No12¢$47.52-$47.52
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
Nov 3, 3 fills
Yes12¢$4.79-$4.79
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Nov 3, 24 fills
No29¢$9.2K+$22.9K
See every position across 178 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
    $168.3K on No at 50¢, Oct 25
    +$168.5K
  2. 2
    Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
    $179.3K on Yes at 56¢, Oct 25
    +$141.2K
  3. 3
    Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
    $20.1K on Yes at 29¢, Oct 24
    +$48.4K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?59¢10187%+$106.8K
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?53¢7885%+$132.6K
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?44¢13+$0.00
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?66¢13+$0.00
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?53¢1650%+$2.9K

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 6Nov 3

Profit by month

Aug 2026-$1.8K
Sep 2026+$2.8K
Oct 2026+$343.0K
Nov 2026+$7.2K

How they build positions

Added to a position36%
Trimmed a position31%
Opened a new position30%
Closed a position4%

Polymarket leaderboards

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