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Stats as of

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418

+$582.2K
Tracked Trades
7,549
First Seen
Aug 2, 2026
Last Trade
Oct 30, 2026
Best In Fed and rates
90% won · 235 settled · +$692.0K

ArmageddonRewardsBilly is a Polymarket trader with 7,549 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 662 wins and 278 losses on settled markets, $582.2K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? on Oct 30.

Win rate
70%
Return on settled
+30%
Money traded
$7.3M
Typical trade
$263.18
Avg entry
73¢
Polymarket rank
#94

Profit over time

+$686.6K+$0.00
Aug 3Oct 30

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢2896%10%+5 pts
20 to 40¢40931%67%+37 pts
40 to 60¢47651%72%+20 pts
60 to 80¢147271%50%-22 pts
Over 80¢490390%79%-11 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $24188837%-$79.45
$24 to $263188758%-$2.5K
$263 to $969188771%-$16.9K
$970 to $60K188781%+$601.7K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
World politics266665%-$113.1K
Fed and rates103990%+$692.0K
Commodities71781%+$13.1K
US elections128138%-$5.3K
Economic data29653%+$226.60
Companies52475%+$664.27

Side taken

Yes 40%60% No

If you had copied ArmageddonRewardsBilly

$100 per bet, last 90 days

-$209.76
Profit
on $17,800.00 staked
121-57
Record
68% win rate
-1%
Return
442 still open
Profit over time178 settled trades
+$512.94-$1.1K
Aug 3Oct 26
-$2.8K
Max drawdown
538% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.96×
Profit factor
$5.5K won vs $5.7K lost
-5.7 pts
Edge vs implied
68% won at 74¢ avg
Longest losing streak
6
Deepest drawdown
132 trades

By category

finance60 settled+28%
culture48 settled+6%
politics67 settled-34%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

263 open positions worth $866.7K

The markets ArmageddonRewardsBilly is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what ArmageddonRewardsBilly is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
Oct 30, 31 fills
No92¢sold 93¢$17.1KExited
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Oct 30, 115 fills
No88¢sold 89¢$168.8KExited
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Oct 30, 19 fills
No41¢sold 38¢$3.5KExited
See every position across 815 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
    $614.3K on Yes at 45¢, Sep 6
    +$751.5K
  2. 2
    Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
    $204.4K on Yes at 93¢, Oct 28
    +$14.9K
  3. 3
    US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
    $55.4K on No at 83¢, Sep 28
    +$11.5K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?45¢168100%+$751.5K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?70¢13378%-$71.1K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?88¢115+$0.00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?84¢65+$0.00
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?93¢65100%+$14.9K

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 2Oct 30

Profit by month

Aug 2026+$598.1K
Sep 2026-$41.1K
Oct 2026+$25.2K

How they build positions

Trimmed a position82%
Added to a position9%
Opened a new position5%
Closed a position4%

Polymarket leaderboards

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