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Stats as of
PolymarketPROBABILITYTRADER
0xef2684030d14a67c2a30a3e4fc00eed7a99505ba
+$55.5K
- Tracked Trades
- 1,435
- First Seen
- Aug 20, 2026
- Last Trade
- Nov 2, 2026
- Best In Esports
- 47% won · 1,308 settled · +$88.7K
PROBABILITYTRADER is a Polymarket trader with 1,435 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 621 wins and 717 losses on settled markets, $55.5K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Dota 2: OG vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner on Nov 2.
- Win rate
- 46%
- Return on settled
- +3%
- Money traded
- $1.9M
- Typical trade
- $1.0K
- Avg entry
- 46¢
- Polymarket rank
- #617
Profit over time
+$117.1K-$35.9K
Aug 20Nov 2
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢2813%33%+20 pts
20 to 40¢28132%27%-5 pts
40 to 60¢100350%50%+1 pts
60 to 80¢10563%63%+1 pts
Over 80¢1887%
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$41 to $67435940%-$8.8K
$675 to $1.0K35942%-$18.7K
$1.0K to $1.7K35950%+$23.8K
$1.7K to $8.1K35853%+$59.2K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Esports139547%+$88.3K
World politics260%-$28.7K
NBA367%+$5.7K
Tennis50%-$4.9K
NFL40%-$1.2K
Soccer20%-$3.7K
Side taken
Yes 93%7% No
If you had copied PROBABILITYTRADER
$100 per bet, last 90 days
+$530.12
Profit
on $54,100.00 staked
258-283
Record
48% win rate
+1%
Return
+$1.1K-$819.71
Aug 17Nov 2
-$1.9K
Max drawdown
258% below peak
0.3×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.02×
Profit factor
$28.8K won vs $28.3K lost
+0.2 pts
Edge vs implied
48% won at 47¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 7
- Deepest drawdown
- 96 trades
By category
sports539 settled+1%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Dota 2: OG vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner
Nov 2
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A
Nov 2
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner
Nov 1
Biggest wins
- 1+$20.9KLoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage$14.5K on Invictus Gaming at 41¢, Oct 25
- 2+$17.7KLoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage$9.5K on CTBC Flying Oyster at 35¢, Oct 23
- 3+$17.5KLoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner$4.6K on LYON at 21¢, Oct 25
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?25¢260%-$28.7K
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage58¢12100%+$12.8K
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs61¢9100%+$3.6K
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs40¢1227%-$2.3K
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner46¢10100%+$16.8K
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Aug 5Nov 2
Profit by month
Aug 2026-$26.8K
Sep 2026+$62.0K
Oct 2026+$22.1K
Nov 2026-$1.7K
How they build positions
Opened a new position62%
Closed a position25%
Trimmed a position9%
Added to a position4%
Polymarket leaderboards
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