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Stats as of

Kalshi

blackswanchaser

+$44.17
Tracked Trades
300
First Seen
Feb 9, 2026
Last Trade
Nov 2, 2026
Best In Entertainment
44% won · 25 settled · +$23.85

blackswanchaser is a Kalshi trader with 300 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 90 wins and 61 losses on settled markets, $44.17 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: DeepSeek Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 11.8% on Nov 2.

Win rate
60%
Return on settled
+20%
Money traded
$439.74
Typical trade
$0.98
Avg entry
32¢
Kalshi rank
#3,876

Profit over time

+$48.00-$6.00
Feb 9Nov 2

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢4212%20%+8 pts
20 to 40¢6031%33%+2 pts
40 to 60¢7753%62%+9 pts
60 to 80¢7370%74%+5 pts
Over 80¢4890%80%-10 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $17532%+$3.34
$1 to $17558%+$24.04
$1 to $27566%+$8.99
$2 to $137574%+$7.80

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Tech and AI13765%+$6.30
Entertainment3744%+$23.85
NFL2988%+$5.12
US politics1929%-$4.87
NBA740%+$7.05
Economic data12100%+$10.19

Side taken

Yes 97%3% No

If you had copied blackswanchaser

$100 per bet, last 90 days

+$2,015.19
Profit
on $9,500.00 staked
67-28
Record
71% win rate
+21%
Return
2 still open
Profit over time95 settled trades
+$2.1K+$0.00
Aug 24Nov 2
-$713.07
Max drawdown
34% below peak
2.8×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.72×
Profit factor
$4.8K won vs $2.8K lost
+9.0 pts
Edge vs implied
71% won at 62¢ avg
Longest losing streak
4
Deepest drawdown
22 trades

By category

finance5 settled+90%
sports18 settled+33%
culture66 settled+17%
politics6 settled-21%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

2 open positions worth $1.00

The markets blackswanchaser is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what blackswanchaser is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
DeepSeek Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 11.8%
Nov 2
Yes77¢$1.97+$0.59
Moonshot AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 7.6%
Nov 2
Sold Yessold 47¢$1.72Exited
Moonshot AI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 7.1%
Nov 2
Sold Yessold 65¢$3.56Exited
See every position across 225 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the Oscars?
    $0.84 on Yes at 3¢, Mar 16
    +$27.16
  2. 2
    Game 5: New York at San Antonio Winner?
    $4.78 on Yes at 36¢, Jun 13
    +$8.50
  3. 3
    Will the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for Oct 15, 2026 be above 7.36%?
    $4.82 on Yes at 53¢, Oct 14
    +$4.24
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Game 5: New York at San Antonio Winner?36¢2100%+$8.50
Google market share this week?50¢450%-$1.47
OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 18.7%67¢3100%+$2.41
Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 28, 2026 be above 81,500 MW?1+$0.00
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?58¢4+$0.00

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 5Nov 2

Profit by month

Feb 2026-$4.47
Mar 2026+$26.91
Apr 2026-$2.40
May 2026-$3.59
Jun 2026+$6.90
Jul 2026-$1.10
Sep 2026+$7.17
Oct 2026+$14.16
Nov 2026+$0.59

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